中共「反介入戰略」空軍嚇阻能力虛實

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Title:	中共「反介入戰略」空軍嚇阻能力虛實
Other Titles:	The PLA airforce capability in the implementation of anti-access strategy
Authors:	劉正弘;Liu, Cheng-hung
Contributors:	淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班曾復生
Keywords:	解放軍空軍;天軍;介入;反介入;嚇阻能力;PLA Airforce;Space Force;access;anti-access;intimidating capability
Date:	2010
Issue Date:	2010-09-23 15:04:38 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	美國智庫蘭德公司於2007 年3 月29 日發表題為「深入龍潭：中共的反介入戰略及其對美國的影響」的最新研究報告中宣稱：「中共有可能在未來發生的台海衝突中擊敗美國」，中共可能採取「反介入戰略」。共軍於台海周邊的「反介入」戰略是採取：「解放軍具體需要的是具體需要的是具有瓦解與打擊台灣的能力，包括對付美國部隊的地區阻斷能力，使美國無法順利在台灣周邊部署部隊」。具體方法包括：阻撓美國的友軍進入戰區、攻擊美軍的指揮中心、切斷美軍的通訊能力、實施重點打擊，先癱後殲等，以提高美國作戰代價，迫使其喪失繼續投入衝突場域的意志。「介入」與「反介入」的最重要的關鍵點就是「處理台灣問題」，美方要支援台灣，而中共則是要阻礙其支援。未來「反介入」作戰的結果，自不會如第二次世界大戰般的横跨太平洋，甚至直攻美國本土，將止於西太平洋與南海地區，但共軍現階段「反介入戰略」的各項準備，仍是以台灣為主要對象。美軍在針對共軍「反介入戰略」，也研擬「反反介入」的反制措施，除藉由調整全球軍力部署外，並以政治外交手段達成其作為，在防阻之餘，也發展反制打擊方式，以「反嚇阻」使共軍不敢輕舉妄動；而美國的「反反介入」則是為了確保它在東亞的霸權秩序。這一場「反介入」與「反反介入」角力的重點，牽涉的不只是美、中之間「軍事能力」的競爭，還包括雙方「政治決心」的對決。 The anti-access strategies adopted by China military means that PLA must possess the intimidating capability so that they can interdict the deployment of US forces into the pertinent area of Taiwan when launching attack against Taiwan. The PLAAF might paralyze the US combat capability by the ways of denying the US allied forces into conflict area, attacking US commanding center, crippling US force ’s communications capability. The key of “access” and anti-access” strategy is that when the US project its force deployment into the pertinent areas of Taiwan to hamper China’s invasion into Taiwan to deal with its so-calles “Taiwan issue” China will take countermeasures against it. It is pretty clear that the theater of anti-access operations will only be confined in the areas of West Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea, rather than covers all of the Pacific Ocean Like WWⅡ or even reaches the US continent. Currently China military is making every efforts and necessary readiness for the implementation of anti-access strategy. In contrast, the US is also taking countermeasures against it. Besides political and diplomatic measures, the US also develops its striking force to deter china’s reckless action and maintain its hegemony in the East Asia. Amid the power struggle, it involves not only military capability but also political determination between two sides.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of International Affairs And Strategic Studies] Thesis

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