| 摘要: | 地緣戰略是對地緣政治利益的戰略管理，透過與外部世界交往或交兵來謀求國家利益。本論文引用地緣戰略的觀點來闡述地理環境對美、俄兩國國家戰略制定、國家利益維護及善變的政治現實中互動的影響。由於北約兩次東擴是導致俄羅斯與美國失和及抗衡直接原因，分析北約東擴及圍繞東擴問題所引發的美俄互動關係，是研究歐洲安全問題的基礎，也是研究美俄國家安全戰略的關鍵因素之一。於是本論文嘗試透過北約東擴事件，探究其如何牽動美俄兩國在地緣政治領域的競爭、合作，如何改變美俄兩國的地緣戰略部署，以及北約東擴對美俄兩國地緣戰略制定的影響，與週邊區域國家穩定的連動性。
美俄均為核大國和軍事強國，美俄各層面國家利益的相互倚重決定美俄競合格局。本研究主要提出4點觀點：一為俄羅斯應致力於拉攏未被西方去俄化國家，以提昇地緣戰略反制能力。二為俄羅斯對美國地緣戰略擠壓和去俄化策略反擊有限，因俄為捍衛獨立國協勢力範圍，已打出能源、武力2張王牌，惟烏、喬、吉仍親西方。三為俄喬戰爭同時限縮美的硬實力、俄的軟實力，俄喬衝突表明俄羅斯有足夠實力，在高加索地區發揮傳統作用並提供安全保障，惟加深獨立國協的畏懼感；而美國在此間顯得侷促，限制其在獨立國協影響力。四為北約持續東擴能否增加區域穩定性值得商榷，如俄喬戰突反射出北約東擴所致歐洲緊張局勢，在俄國決心以武力捍衛其地緣勢力範圍下，歐洲安全局勢仍存在不穩定。
近歐巴馬新推「靈巧實力」（smart power）外交政策，強化與俄羅斯及各國的合作關係，而俄羅斯「2020年國家安全戰略」文件也將執行理性、務實的外交政策，發展與歐盟、北約、美國的互動關係，惟俄「2010年新軍事學說」明指北約為主要威脅，向美國展現其以武力捍衛地緣勢力範圍的決心，顯示美、俄兩國做為對國際社會負責任的大國，為維護各自地緣利益仍會實施軟硬攻防，並在新戰略思維的驅動下進退有據，將影響層面控制至最低。
Geostrategy is the geopolitical interests of strategic management, through contacts with the outside world, or wage war to pursue national interests. The paper quoted geo-strategic point of view to explain the geographical environment on U.S and Russia to develop national strategies, national interests to maintain and adapt to the impact of interaction between the political reality. Therefore, this thesis attempts from NATO expansion eastwards to explore how it affects U.S and Russia in the field of geopolitical competition, cooperation, and how to change U.S and Russia''s geo-strategic plan, the impact of the geographic strategy between U.S and Russia, and stability of neighboring countries.
U.S and Russia are major nuclear and military powers, they at all levels rely heavily on national interests result in their competing patterns. The thesis has 4 main views: one, Russia should cozy up those not Westernize countries, to enhance the ability of geo-strategic counter. Second, face of the U.S. geo-strategic squeeze, Russia''s strategy to counter is limited. Due to the Russian has played the energy, force two trump card, but Ukraine, Georgia is still pro-Western. Third, the war between Russian and Georgia limits America''s hard power, Russia''s soft power. The conflict showed that Russia strength to play a traditional role in the Caucasus, and to provide security, but the fear is also deepening. Fourth, NATO''s eastward expansion could increase regional stability is questionable, as the war between Russian and Georgia reflecting NATO''s eastward expansion caused by sudden tension in Europe. By the way, Russia determined to defend its geopolitical sphere in force, the security situation in Europe is still instability.
Obama’s new 「smart power」foreign policy and Russia''s「National Security Strategy 2020」reveals that United States and Russia as a negative responsible major power in the international community, to safeguard their own geopolitical interests will still be put in attack and defense, and due to the new strategic thinking will affect the level of control to a minimum. |
