| 摘要: | 本論文將深入分析與研究中國股市從2005~2008年，從低點逐漸走升，創歷史新高，再從高點回落的各種因素。
2005年5月，中國股市股權分置改革，奠定中國證券市場健全與穩定發展；2005年7月匯率改革，人民幣匯率開始盯住一籃子貨幣，預期人民幣升值的熱錢不斷湧入中國；加上從2005年下半年之後，中國政府開始嚴格調控過熱房市，資金因而轉流入股市；人民儲蓄增加，轉而投資股市，股市開戶人數屢創新高；中國經濟持續向好、中國政府健全法規，讓投資人更有信心。綜合以上因素，使中國股市開始大幅度走升，上證指數在2007年10月16日攀上6124點，創歷史高點。
但隨著股市走升，市場開始出現不理性的投入，股價指數從2005年末的1160點一路狂飆升至2007年10月的6124點，漲幅達到527%，兩市平均本益比高達60倍以上，明顯已經過熱。中國政府開始一連串的宏觀調控來打壓過熱的股市，先是緊縮貨幣政策，再來從財政政策，調升印花稅；接著由於美國次級房貸風暴，造成的全球金融海嘯，讓逐漸與世界接軌的中國股市，受到強烈的打擊。到2008年9月底上證指數最低跌到了1800點左右，不到一年的時間，中國股市跌幅達到70%。
目前中國股市已經成為全球焦點，透過2005~2008年的發展，相信可以讓我們更全面性的了解中國股市。
The dissertation analyses several important factors of China stock market volatility, which hit a historical high in 2005 and soon fell back to normal level in 2008.
In May 2005, Chinese government enforced equity division reform policy that fostered healthy institutionalization and stable development of stock market. In July 2005, because of the exchange rate policy reform, Ren Min Bi (RMB) was pegged to currency basket, resulting in RMB’s appreciation and hot money inflow. Meanwhile, Chinese government decided to control overheated housing market, hence capital inflow veered to stock market. Moreover, high saving rate, blooming economy and undergoing laws reformation all encourage investment in Chinese stock market. Consequently, Chinese stock market shot a mark-up and peaked at 6124 points on October 16, 2007.
With stock market boost, irrational investment appeared, that causes the over-optimistic stock market in October 2007, with abnormal increase scope of 527% and P/E ratio of 60. Under the circumstances, Chinese government proposed a series of macroeconomic control policies, including tight monetary policy and raising stamp duty, to curb the unleashed stock market. Chinese stock market afterwards was seriously affected by US sub-prime mortgage crisis and follow-up global economic downturn. Within 12 months, Chinese stock market has plummeted by 70%.
Nowadays, Chinese stock market has been in the spotlight, and through the exploration and analysis of the dissertation, the volatility of Chinese stock market, the reasons behind the scene as well as the development of Chinese stock market during 2005-2008 could be clearly examined. |
