| 摘要: | 本研究所設定的風險管理計畫目標，就是有效管理兩岸人民往來的疫病風險。以2003年之SARS 事件及2009年H1N1防疫經驗為基礎，運用「國際專案管理學會」所建立的風險管理結構，以及危機管理大師邱強所建立的危機管理的系統，建立一套兩岸人員往來的疫病風險架構。
為此，必先進行兩岸人員往來可能發生疫病的風險判定，設定危機場景的想像後計算危機發生機率，然後隨時偵測可能的風險先兆，萬一發生了必須迅速進行矯正。當然有可能矯正無效，風險真的發生變成危機，就必須啟動危機處理的應變計畫，以降低損害的程度，甚至能夠迅速復原，這些都是風險管理計畫所設定的目標與操作步驟。
本研究發現從2003年發生SARS以來：1、中國隱匿疫情仍是最大風險變數；2、傳染病偵測須掌握國際脈動；3、邊境檢疫效果仍然有限；4、兩岸風險管理意識不足；5、台灣的指揮系統常受政治干擾；6、中國仍以政治掛帥；7、疫情防治著重國際合作；8、跨部門合作的重要性；9、自製疫苗是長久之計；10、危機動員須展現魄力。
最後本研究建議政府能從以下幾個部分著手：1、建立整合型風險管理系統；2、建立風險管理的標準作業流程；3、危機的應變機制規劃與啟動時機；4、透明有效精確的風險溝通；5、強化偵測，加強國際合作；6、生技產業的推動；7、提昇危機意識與公民意識；8、中國應調整面對疫情的態度；9、加強兩岸疫情通報合作；10、共同成立生物醫學中心。
The target of the risk management project set by this research is to manage the infectious diseases risk of people cross-straits effectively. Based on the epidemic prevention experience of SARS affair in 2003 and H1N1 in 2009, applying the risk management structure built up by" International Project Management Association" and crisis management system built up by the master Chiu Qiang, this research aims to establish the structure of infectious diseases risk of people cross-straits.
Therefore, it is necessarily advanced to go cross-straits personnel''s contacts to probably take place the risk of plague to judge, the imagination of the scene of the enactment crisis behind calculate the probability of the crisis occurrence, then detect possible risk omen at any time, in case that took place have to be quickly carry on correcting. Certainly correcting probably is invalid, the risk true occurrence becomes a crisis, have to initiate the contingency project of crisis processing, the degree of the since low damage, even can quickly recover, all of these are the target and operation steps that the risk management project sets.
Hereunder are some findings after SARS in 2003:1, it’s still the biggest risk variable that epidemic situation concealed by China ;2, it’s necessary to seize the international circumstances for detection of infectious diseases;3, the effect of the frontier medical inspection is still limited;4, the shortage of the risk management consciousness of cross-straits;5, the commanding system of Taiwan is often subjected to political interference;6, the politics consideration is still the priority in China ;7, the epidemic situation prevention stresses the importance of international cooperation; 8, the importance of cross-departments cooperation;9, the self-made vaccine is a permanent arrangement;10, the crisis mobilization must show energetic.
Finally, this research suggests the authorities to undertake the followings :1, to build up an integrated risk management system;2, to establish the standard process of risk management;3, to plan the emergency measure of crisis and master suitable starting point;4, the transparent, effective and accurate risk communication;5, to enhance the detection of epidemic disease and strengthen the international cooperation;6, to drive the development of biotechnology industry;7, to promote the consciousness crisis and citizen;8, China should adjust the attitude of handling epidemic situation;9, to strengthen the epidemic notification system of cross-straits;10, to establish cross-straits biomedicine center together. |
