| 摘要: | 兩岸自1987年開始開放交流至今，其特殊的兩岸關係，即政治上對立、國防上對峙、外交上對抗，但經濟領域等其他民間往來卻相當熱絡；這種國際上絕無僅有、極具兩岸特色的互動模式，不但未阻礙兩岸經貿的快速發展，其他功能性領域的範疇也更加持續深化；尤其在2000年之後，台灣對中國大陸的出口成長率幾近年年上升，目前更超過占台灣總出口的四成，使得中國大陸不僅為台灣第一大出口市場，也是台灣最大貿易順差來源地。
其次，90年代後期，區域主義的再度盛行，以及近年來WTO多邊談判的進展緩慢，促使世界各國紛紛投入區域經濟整合，全球開始興起一股簽訂區域貿易協定或自由貿易協定的潮流；加上中國大陸與東協的自由貿易區已於2010年正式生效，台灣產品將面臨高關稅的貿易障礙，無法與東協各國在中國大陸市場公平競爭。這對於身為全球第17大出口國（2009年）的台灣而言，若無法儘快加入全球區域經濟整合，特別是東亞區域整合，其經濟恐怕將逐漸被邊緣化。
基此，馬政府在上任後，即致力推動與中國大陸簽署經濟合作架構協議（ECFA），希冀透過ECFA做為台灣參與世界區域經濟整合的敲門磚，台灣經濟成長的催化劑。中國大陸領導人方面，也釋出善意回應，具體表明願意與台灣簽署ECFA。當前兩岸政府也已於今年6月29日正式簽訂ECFA，目前尚待我立法院通過審議，並完成相關程序後即可生效。
從兩岸雙方積極洽簽ECFA的態度來看，筆者發現，兩岸對於後ECFA時代不啻充滿期待，也分別將其列入當前兩岸經貿互動最重要的課題；而未來ECFA後續協議能否順利簽署，除了是檢驗兩岸關係最具代表性的成績單之外，更是攸關著未來兩岸關係的和平發展。惟仍須注意的是，後ECFA時代所產生的經濟及政治的負面效應，政府也應事先做好因應之道，如此才能藉由ECFA來改善台灣與「東協」國家的關係，使台灣融入東亞區域經濟整合，避免經濟被邊緣化的危機，進而走向國際，打造未來台灣經濟的「黃金十年」。
Since 1987 there are rapid changes in the cross-strait, changes includes: economy and others private exchanges are warming relations with China, but the political aspect remain confrontation. The form is uniquely. The highly interactive features not only make the trade rapid development but also make other functional areas further. After 2000, Taiwan''s exports growth rate to mainland get higher and higher year after year. Taiwan''s total exports depend on China more than fourty percents. China is the largest export market and the biggest trade surplus to Taiwan.
After 90s, the regionalism prevails again, in recent years, WTO multilateral negotiations develop very slowly, it puches nations into the regional economic integration. The nations promote a regional trade agreements by signing Free Trade Agreements globally. China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) came into effect in 2010. Taiwan''s products will face difficult battles, which can’t compete fairly with other ASEAN members in China market. Taiwan is 17th largest exporter (2009) in the world. If we can’t as soon as enter the regional economic integration globally, especially enter the East Asia regional integration, Taiwanese economy will gradually be marginalized.
After taking office, the Ma government has promoted to sign an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with China. By the ECFA Taiwan will participate in the regional economic integration to the world and it will stimulate the economic growth in Taiwan. The leaders of China goodwill response to Taiwan, they will to sign the ECFA to Taiwan. The cross-strait government signed ECFA on June 29 this year. It will take effect after waiting for the Legislative’s passage and complete it.
The two sides have positive attitude to sign the ECFA, this research discovered that, they are looking forward to other important issues related to current cross-strait economic and trade interaction after the ECFA. However, signing the ECFA successfully not only test the cross-strait relations but also relate to the peaceful development in the future. Certaining, Taiwan should pay attention on the negative effects economiclly and politically. Our government should prevent from hurting and finding the best ways in advance to help the sectors which suffered from ECFA. By doing so, Taiwan should join the East Asian regional economic integration and avoid being marginalized. |
