| 摘要: | 社會主義國家因缺乏民主國家制度化與民主化的菁英甄補，容易產生政治繼承、權力交接問題，導致政治不穩定與不確定性。政治繼承問題直接衝擊重大公共政策走向，同時對政權的穩定性產生深遠的影響，因此向來是政治研究的一個重要焦點。
對中共而言，隨著中共革命世代與強人領袖的消逝，其政治威權體制與運作發生結構性變化，中共現階段領導人欠缺毛澤東、鄧小平時代革命功績與政治魅力，無法指定接班人選，權力繼承方式已由激烈的鬥爭轉趨和平方式的集體領導模式，黨領袖決策不再完全體現個人意志，而需與黨內菁英協商合作，因此，可能形成因議題而合縱連橫的狀態。另一方面，這些新的政治菁英因為文化大革命影響而不願使權力競逐導致政權崩潰，因而各派系都有維持政權相對穩定的共同利益。由於「中國共產黨第十七次全國代表大會」(以下簡稱十七大)是胡錦濤全面掌權的歷史新階段，從「十七大」出線的中央政治局委員與政治局常委，可觀察未來中共政治菁英甄補需要具備何種的條件與特色。
以胡錦濤為首的共青團派，在權力繼承過程中扮演何種角色？其影響為何？在「十七大」進入政治局的新菁英中，有哪些是屬於團派幹部？團派幹部崛起與其他派系，包括太子黨、上海幫、青華幫、同鄉會、秘書群乃至海歸派等菁英間可能的衝突或合作關係為何？由於政治勢力間的爭奪會加深以區域為基礎的摩差，這種衝突若不斷持續，將可能造成中國災難性後果。
從胡錦濤掌政以來，共青團幹部的崛起致使「幫落團興」，但無形中「團派」也成為中共其他派系圍剿、鬥爭的對象，各派系間不斷衝突，亦不斷妥協。然而，利益衝突若能藉由妥協與協商來化解，從中建立起最高領導人的繼承制度，並逐步發展為依法統治的國家，建立出理性的權威，那麼中共政治的發展方可穩定中進步，對建立中共政治制度化將產生正面影響。
Socialist countries because of a lack of democracy and democratization of the elite Zhen supplement, prone to political inheritance, power transfer problems, causing political instability and uncertainty. Political inheritance issues directly impact major public policy, the stability of the regime at the same time a profound impact, therefore has always been an important political research focus.
The Communists, as the Chinese Communist revolution generation and strongman leaders gone, its political authoritarian system and operational occur at this stage of the Communist Party of structural change, leaders lack of Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping era revolution achievements and political charm, you cannot specify a successor selected, how inheritance works, which was adopted by the powers of the intense struggle to become more peaceful means of collective leadership patterns, party leaders decision no longer fully reflect the will, and the need for personal and inner-party elite to negotiate cooperation, therefore, may be formed because of that and alliances. On the other hand, these new political elite, because the effects of the cultural revolution rather than compete for political power, in the exercise of his powers, and thus caused crashes factions all have relative stability to maintain the regime''s common interests. As the 17th National Congress "(hereinafter referred to as the cover) is a comprehensive history of Hu Jintao in power to a new stage, from" cover "of the CPC Central Committee and Politburo Standing Committee, can be observed in future Communist political elite, Zhen supplement needs what conditions and characteristics.
To Hu Jintao led the League sent, in power inheritance process stage its effects are? "with the" enter a new Member of the elite, which belongs to the group party cadres electoral party cadres rise and other factions, including Prince party, Shanghai Gang, Qing-help, clansmen, Secretary of the Group and even foreign degree, the elite among possible conflict or cooperation? due to contention between political forces will deepen as the zone-based friction differential, this kind of conflict if continues, will likely result in catastrophic consequences in China.
From Hu Jintao exercise since the rise of Communist Youth League cadres "help" drop Regiment Hing, but virtually a "group" has become the PRC other factions campaign he fought for the object, the factions were conflicts, has also been a compromise. However, if a conflict of interest by compromise and negotiation to resolve, which established the Supreme Leader of the inheritance system, and the progressive development of the nation, according to the law to establish a rational authority, then the Communist political party in the development of stable and progressive, on the establishment of the Communist political institutionalization will produce positive effects. |
