| Abstract: | 隨著中國經濟的崛起，日本、美國、澳洲、南韓甚至BBC媒體公司，每年都針對該國國民或全球進行對中國印象調查。而與中國關係十分特殊的台灣卻沒有相關中國印象的指標與調查。
本研究透過電話調查訪問法進行民意調查，瞭解台灣民眾對中國之印象，以及如何看待當前的兩岸關係，並以「雙英辯」以及「2010上海世博會」作為重大事件，觀察事件發生前後受訪者之印象差異以及態度的轉變。
調查發現，由於制度的差異與中國的武力威脅，當前台灣民眾對中國的印象，在情感方面較為負面，對中國的喜好度、親近感、信賴度皆偏低。此外，「雙英辯」與「2010上海世博會」開幕等經濟議題的短期效應雖然使台灣民眾對中國人民的不信賴感降低，但並非轉向正面態度，而是轉趨觀望與保守；而具有中國經驗對於中國的印象則產生正面的影響。
在兩岸關係方面，台灣民眾對兩岸關係的現狀與未來發展的評估，是相當樂觀的，不僅評估當前的兩岸關係是處在相當好的階段，同時也認為未來會越來越好。對於日漸崛起的中國，台灣民眾亦對其未來發展充滿信心，也認為台灣日後應更加親近中國，積極開展關係。與對中國的負面情感相對照，顯示台灣民眾對於中國，存在著「機會」與「威脅」兩種矛盾的情緒。
此外，在兩岸關係中，台灣民眾依舊擔心中國的武力威脅，也擔心交流日趨頻繁下，台灣的經濟過度依賴中國。因此反映在對未來的期待上，台灣民眾認為兩岸應該最優先推展的便是更緊密的經濟交流與簽訂和平協議。至於其他面向的交流協商，如政治與軍事，台灣民眾尚未做好交流的準備，也缺乏互信的基礎。
至於兩岸交流對台灣民眾究竟是帶來好處，還是風險，多數台灣民眾仍在觀望，尚無法做出判斷。同時，「雙英辯」及「上海世博會」開幕後，台灣民眾對兩岸關係的看法，以及交流效益的評估等，負面看法比率降低，但並未轉向正面與樂觀，而是轉趨觀望與保守。
最後，在「和平」與「民主」兩種價值的取捨方面，大多數的台灣民眾願保有和平而犧牲民主。顯示對當前的台灣人民來說，雖具有追求「和平」的共識，但卻缺乏維護「民主」制度的決心。
Since the rapid rise of China’s economy, Japan, the United States, Australia, South Korea, and the British Broadcasting Corporation have conducted a series of nationwide or worldwide surveys over public impression of China every year. Such investigations and surveys, however, have seldom been done in Taiwan, even though Taiwan has particular and close relations with China. Thus this study attempts to explore Taiwanese public’s impressions of Beijing and its views on the current cross-strait relations. This study applies a telephone survey as a method of data collection to observing the divergence of interviewees’ impression and their attitude change in the events “Ma-Tsai Debate” and “Expo 2010 Shanghai China”.
The survey finds that due to regime differences and China’s military threat Taiwanese public has a relatively negative impression against China. For most Taiwanese, Beijing is not so favorable, benign and reliable. At the same time, this survey shows that even though “Ma-Tsai Debate,” “Expo 2010 Shanghai China,” and other economic linkages have short-term effects on reducing distrust, Taiwanese public’s views on China just become more neutral and cautious rather than positive. Nonetheless, the finding also shows that China experience can make a positive impact on China’s impression.
According to the survey, Taiwanese public is quite optimistic about the present and future situation in the relations between Taipei and Beijing. Taiwanese think that Cross-strait relationship is quite warm and will be more stable and peaceful in the future. Facing a rising China, Taiwanese have more confidence and believe that actively improving cross-strait relations and bridging the mutual gap are necessary. But in comparison with Taiwanese negative views on China, a contradiction between “opportunity” and “threat” seems to be in Taiwanese thought.
Furthermore, Taiwanese public is anxious about China’s military threat and Taiwan’s trade and economic over-dependence on China as usual. Therefore Taiwanese hope that promoting more close economic exchange and signing a peace agreement are the top priorities at the same time. Regarding other exchanges, like political dialogue and military cooperation, Taiwanese do not prepare themselves quite well as a result of a lack of mutual trust.
Taiwanese public is dubious about whether such exchanges are benefits or risks to Taiwan. Most Taiwanese can not judge at the moment. Despite this, “Ma-Tsai Debate” and “Expo 2010 Shanghai China” still modify Taiwanese negative views on bilateral relations and effects of those exchanges. The rate of negative views drops. Public opinion in Taiwan shifts into more neutral and cautious.
Finally, the finding regarding Taiwanese public’s attitude on the values “Peace” and “Democracy” is also interesting. Most Taiwanese would like to see peace between Taiwan and China regardless of whether Beijing is democratic or not. Obviously, Taiwanese have the consensus on pursuing “peace,” but have no determination to spread “democracy.” |
