| 摘要: | 馬英九上任之前後，國內經濟因多方面因素停滯不前，李登輝執政時期台商開始
紛紛往大陸設廠或投資，但卻經歷了1997 年東南亞的金融風暴，再加上李登輝執政
後期所揭櫫「戒急用忍」政策，防止企業在大陸過度擴張投資。接著民進黨執政，一
開始雖是放寬的大陸政策，後來緊縮兩岸經貿，更為臺灣經濟帶來風霜。而現今世界
潮流是區域經濟的整合，東協10+1 局勢來臨，讓臺灣經濟更面臨艱苦的挑戰。
在外交政策上，執政者的特質與其他因素也會影響其制訂。國民黨自大陸來台，
那時兩岸對立，在國際邦交國上也採取「互不承認」，造成臺灣退出聯合國及美國與
我國斷交二重大外交挫敗。等到李登輝執政時，在外交政策理念與思維的方面，開始
轉向現實，此即李登輝總統所宣示的「務實外交」，此一政策使得臺灣在當時獲得不
少中南美洲的邦交國。但等到陳水扁執政時，臺灣無力在國際場合與大陸競爭，所以
改採「烽火外交」，其結果可以說是失敗，臺灣與美國的關係也出現裂痕，故臺灣在
2008８年面臨內外的挑戰可說不小。
國民黨失去政權之後，開始與大陸進行接觸，進而成立國共交流平台。馬英九先
生上台之後，知道要解決臺灣內外的問題唯有與大陸和平相處才有機會，故提出一連
串的政策都與大陸相關，包括兩岸海基、海協兩會中斷已久再度復談，簽署了十二項
協議、一項共識，基本上都對臺灣有所助益。
兩岸關係逐漸和緩的情形下，臺灣所需要不只是這樣，也需要國際空間跟邦交
國，而這部分跟大陸也有密切關連。馬總統提出了「活路外交」、「外交休兵」以取代
民進黨的「烽火外交」政策，其基本的理念就是希望為中華民國的外交尋找一個出路，
具體的方法就是看能不能在兩岸關係當中，在國際社會方面，找出一個雙方可以互動
的模式。如能獲得中共的善意回應，進而讓臺灣獲得比以前的更寬廣的國際空間，也
讓兩岸關係更為融洽。
In 2008, with the second “party alternation in power” in Taiwan, the Kuomintang Party took over the power again. However, the domestic and international situation of Taiwan was not so optimistic.
The domestic economy stagnated due to various factors. During Lee Teng-hui’s Administration period, Taiwanese businessmen, one after another, started to set up factories and make investments in Mainland China. Unfortunately, they encountered with the financial crisis in Southeast Asia in 1997. In addition, during the latter period of Lee’s Administration, he introduced the "no haste, go slow" policy to restrain excessive expansion of investment in Mainland China. Then, the DPP came to take over. At the beginning, the DPP loosened the policy towards Mainland China. However, on the New Year''s Day of 2006, it initiated the "active management, effective opening" policy to tighten the cross-strait trade, which only resulted in more hardships of Taiwan''s economy. At the same time, the overall national strength of comprehensive economy and trade in Mainland China increased greatly, with the regional economic integration, China-ASEAN (10+1) then came. All of these posed Taiwan’s economy in a hard position.
The international situation of Taiwan differed from that under the previous administrations. The KMT came to Taiwan from the mainland in 1949, and the two sides confronted each other both politically and militarily. Moreover, both adopted the “mutual non-recognition” policy. All of these resulted in two major diplomatic setbacks of Taiwan. One is Taiwan withdrew from the United Nations, and the other is the U.S. terminated the diplomatic relations with Taiwan and started it with Mainland. Until Lee Teng-hui came to power, he felt that the cross-strait "zero-sum" diplomatic competition put Taiwan at a disadvantage situation, so he focused more on the reality in respect of the diplomatic principle and manner. Thus, the "pragmatic diplomacy" which Lee declared in 1988 at that time did help Taiwan make diplomatic allies with some Central and South American countries. However, during Chen Shui-bian’s administration, due to the economic situation in Taiwan and the increased overall national strength of the Mainland, Taiwan was unable to compete with the Mainland internationally. Then Chen adopted the “scorched earth diplomacy" policy which in reality proven to be a failure. Combined with some elements in the election, the relation between Taiwan and the US began to fall apart. Therefore, Taiwan was faced with severe challenges domestically and internationally in 2008.
After the KMT lost power, they began to be close with Mainland and established platform for communication between CPC and KMT, with no hostility towards Mainland China any more. Therefore, after Ma Ying-Jeou came into power, he knew that the only opportunity to solve Taiwan’s inside and outside problems is the peaceful coexistence with the Mainland. Therefore, he put forward a series of policies with regards to Mainland China, including the resumption of the talks conducted by the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) and the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF), the 12 agreement signed with a consensus item. All of these are generally in favor of Taiwan.
As to the foreign affairs, President Ma put forward the “flexible diplomacy” policy and "diplomatic truce" policy in replacement of the DDP’s "scorched earth diplomacy" policy. His fundamental principle is to explore a way out for the diplomacy of Republic of China (ROC) and his specific way is to find interaction for both sides to deal with the international affairs in the cross-strait relations.
With the gradually loosened cross-strait relations, Taiwan also needs to the international space and more foreign allies, which is in close relation with Mainland China. Therefore, the study motivation of this paper is to explore if the "diplomatic truce" policy of the Ma administration could have good response from the CPC, Taiwan will gain much broader international space than ever before, and the cross-strait relations will be better in the future.
This paper outlines the concept of “flexible diplomacy” policy, makes comparison of the diplomatic policies and their impact with the previous administrations, assesses the policy through various aspects, explores the pros-and-cons of the policy and put forward the author’s suggestions. This paper could serve as a reference in the academic study. |
