| 摘要: | 我國與東亞國家經貿往來日趨緊密，中國大陸、日本、韓國、東協等合計占我出口總額比重已超越美國；近來該區域經濟整合有加速之趨勢，東協分別與中國大陸、韓國、日本簽署之自由貿易協定已陸續生效實施，東協與澳紐、印度之自由貿易協定，預訂2010年初生效；又韓國、日本亦積極與其主要貿易夥伴簽署自由貿易協定，這些對我國貿易發展已產生若干影響，若我國無法參與其中，則該區域經濟整合已對我國產生排擠效應。對台灣而言，簽訂ECFA究竟是危機還是轉機？國內意見紛歧情況下，本文通過借鑒國內外理論和經驗，並採用中華經濟研究院的GTAP模型數據進行二手分析，對於兩岸簽署ECFA對台灣經濟之影響，研究結果顯示簽署後對台灣GDP、出進口、貿易條件、社會福利均呈現正成長，整體經濟成長率將增加結合WTO相關法規和實施情況，深入分析在ECFA框架下該區域經濟格局變化的動力因素、結構等，以期實現區域經濟學理論創新，為促進臺灣如何進入區域經濟的發展提供思考，並進一步瞭解推動ECFA之意義及創造之價值為何？由於兩岸ECFA係類似東協與中國大陸經濟合作架構協定模式，是全面性的經濟合作協定，其內容涵蓋了兩岸間的主要經濟活動，確定了未來兩岸經濟合作的基本結構和發展規劃，而ECFA之簽署將對兩岸關係發展之影響，值得關注。
Taiwan’s trade with Eastern Asia has been getting closed recently, with the proportion of exports accounted for by China, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN exceeding that of U.S. The economic integration within that area has accelerated. ASEAN had signed free trade agreements with China, South Korea and Japan, which have come into effect subsequently. ASEAN free trade agreements with Australia, New Zealand, and India will be effective in 2010. On the other hand, South Korea and Japan signed free trade agreement with their major trade partners aggressively. All of these actions by other countries have been affected our trade development. If Taiwan can not be involved, there will be a crowding-out effect as a result of the regional economic integration. As for Taiwan, is ECFA a risk or an opportunity? With division of domestic opinions, through domestic and foreign theories and experiences, this study conducts two-way analysis by using GTAP model of Chinese Economic Research Institute, and explores the effect of ECFA on Taiwan’s economy. The results indicate that after the agreement is signed, GDP, international trade, terms of trade, and social welfare will grow. The overall growth will increase. This study, also analyzes, along with the related regulations of WTO and the implementation, the motivation and structure of the economic changes in the region under ECFA. The aim is to accomplish the innovation of region economic theory, to provide thoughts about promoting Taiwan’s entry into the development of regional economy, and to further understand the meaning and the value of ECFA. Because ECFA is similar to the economic cooperation framework agreement between ASEAN and China, which is overall economic cooperation framework, its content includes major economic activities between China and Taiwan, ensuring the basic structure and development plan of future economic cooperation. The effect of ECFA on the development cross-strait relations is worth being noted. |
