銀行業在存放款利差日益縮小，以及2006年銀行雙卡風暴衝擊個人消費金融業務的雙重打擊下，使得銀行面臨營運上的困境，並改以手續費收入為主的財富管理業務作為發展要點。本研究即以財富管理業務作為本篇的研究重點，採用平滑移轉迴歸模型（Smooth Transition Autoregression, STAR）探討在不同景氣變動下銀行財富管理業務受利率與匯率的關係。結果發現，以景氣指數為轉換變數時，將使財富管理業務在利率方面產生結構性變化，亦即當景氣指標遠大於或遠小於門檻值時，利率對財富管理業務量將由正轉為負相關。另外，前兩期物價指數對財富管理業務量也具有某種程度的影響力。 Abstract： Bank industry faces operational difficulty due to the reduction of bank interest margin and 2006, and therefore shift the development emphasis toward process-fee orientated wealth management. This research is aimed to explore wealth management, employing Smooth Transition Autoregression (STAR) to investigate the relationship with bank’s wealth management affected by interest rate under different business cycle changing. The empirical results find that to bring business index as transitional variable, wealth management occurs structure changing with interest rate fluctuation. When the business index is far greater or far less than the threshold value, interest rate and wealth management value have correlation shifted from positive related to negative related. Furthermore, two times previous prices index have certain influence on wealth management value.
