日本バイオエタノール政策の研究－環境性、経済性、供給安定性を中心に

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Title:	日本バイオエタノール政策の研究－環境性、経済性、供給安定性を中心に
Other Titles:	日本生質乙醇政策之研究—環境性、經濟性、供給安定性之考察 The effects of introduction of bio-ethanol in Japan - a survey of 3e’s vision: environment protection, economic efficiency and energy security
Authors:	王彥麟;Wang, Yen-lin
Contributors:	淡江大學亞洲研究所碩士班洪振義;Hong, Cheng-yih
Keywords:	生質能源;生質燃料;生質乙醇;生質酒精;能源政策;3E;CO2;bioenergy;Biofuel;bioethanol;CO2 emission;Energy Policy;3E;バイオエネルギー;バイオ燃料;バイオエタノール;エネルギー政策;3E;CO2
Date:	2010
Issue Date:	2010-09-24
Abstract:	本文由環境性、經濟性、供給安定性來探討生質能源政策在日本所帶來的各種效果。經由本文之探討，可歸結出以下各項結論：第一，透過生質乙醇的導入，E3與E10為日本所帶來的二氧化碳削減量約相當於其運輸部門年度排放量的1.03%與3.67%。此成果需透過生質乙醇的大量進口來達成，然而這些乙醇有極大部分是經由破壞熱帶雨林進行生產。故此政策可能帶來「將日本的二氧化碳排放量出口至生質乙醇生產國」之結果。其次，在目前的原油價格下，若將炭交易價格做為比較對象，可發現透過生質乙醇進行二氧化碳減量之政策完全不符成本。先行研究指出，透過原油價格的上升與生質乙醇價格的下降可望對此做出改善。然而正如本文第四章所述，原油與乙醇價格具有相當程度之連動性，未來可能無法期待透過此種價格變化改善二氧化碳排放成本。但依據IEA之預測，炭排放價格在未來有相當大程度的上漲空間，因此透過生質燃料進行減炭的政策並未完全失去價值。第三，依據日本政府所發布的資料顯示，日本所蘊含的生質能源雖足以供應其國內支燃料需求，然而成本一直是其最大阻礙。正如本文所述，巴西透過廉價的勞動力以降低生產成本，然而工資相對較高的日本卻無法透過這種方式生產低價生質乙醇。此外，由於對乙醇所課的關稅年年降低，再加上近年日圓匯率高漲，未來非日本國產之生質乙醇將更具價格競爭力。 The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of Bio-Ethanol policy in Japan. By the analysis of 3E’s vision, we can obtain the following mainly results: First, by introducing the E3 and E10 to Japan, the reduction of CO2 emission will be equivalent to the annual emissions of transport sector’s 1.03% and 3.67%. However, it requires importing large quantities of Bio-Ethanol to be achieved. In other words, there is a possibility that the CO2 emission would not be reduced in the whole earth and Japan just export CO2 emission to the country of Bio-Ethanol maker. Second, in the current crude oil price, if we choice price of carbon trading market as a comparison, we can find that CO2 emission reduction policy of Bio-Ethanol is inconsistent with the cost. First study has indicated that CO2 emission reduction’s cost can be improved through the rise in crude price and decline in the price of Bio-Ethanol. But the price of crude oil and ethanol are connected with a considerable degree. Therefore, we can’t expect the cost improved by this kind of price change in the future. However, based on IEA’s forecast, there is a possibility that carbon emission trading price may soar to $41-191 in 2030. It means that carbon reduction policies of Bio-Ethanol are not entirely worthless. Third, cost is a major obstacle to introduce the Bio-ethanol in Japan. As described in this paper, Brazil reduces costs of Bio-Ethanol through cheap labor, but low wages are not available in Japan. In addition, Japanese government is going to lower the tariff on ethanol and the strong yen is seem to last for a long time, Bio-Ethanol which import from overseas would be more price-competitive in the foreseeable future.
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