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    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw/dspace/handle/987654321/50412


    題名: Seasonal forecasting of a decomposed fuzzy exponential smoothing model using grey estimated values
    作者: 曹銳勤;Tsaur, Ruey-chyn
    貢獻者: 淡江大學經營決策學系
    關鍵詞: exponential smoothing model;fuzzy exponential smoothing model;grey forecasting
    seasonal datum;decomposition
    日期: 2009-01
    上傳時間: 2013-07-11 11:34:20 (UTC+8)
    出版者: Taipei : Chinese Institute of Chemical Engineers
    摘要: This paper proposes a decomposed fuzzy exponential smoothing model to analyze the seasonal time series data in which the secular trend and seasonal effects are transferred. Using the transferred data and the estimated grey value, the fuzzy exponential smoothing equation is solved, resulting in a smaller forecasting error. Then, the decomposed forecasting values are traced back by multiplying the seasonal index and trend values to obtain the seasonal forecasting values. Three examples are provided to illustrate the proposed model. In the training sets, the forecasting errors of the proposed model are better than Holt-Winter's model and the statistically decomposed method. In the test sets, the proposed model is also a better fit for the future trend.
    關聯: Journal of the Chinese Institute of Engineers=中國工程學刊 32(1), pp.17-31
    DOI: 10.1080/02533839.2009.9671479
    顯示於類別:[管理科學學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

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