如期、如質、如度完成工程專案，為工程專案管理之三個重要領域，然而 儘管學理上發展出許多工期排程模式如甘特圖、平衡線圖、網狀圖或模擬，然而 工期估算不如成本，有一快速簡單又準確量化之評估方法，亦不如品質有明確之 規範或標準可資遵循，因此本研究透過擬透過案例收集探討與專家訪談、問卷調 查輔以AHP以及德爾菲法，以建築工程之施工階段為研究範圍，探討不同建築工 程類型之WBS(工作分工結構圖)，進而探討其影響工期之因素，透過類神經網路 與物件導向技術建構工期推估模式，並輔以關鍵鏈及模擬方法比較驗證其結果， 以期提供主辦機關較準確且快速地進行工期推算，亦可提供廠商投標之際，匆促 時間壓力下快速估算工期，俾使提供設計單位與廠商或主辦機關能夠快速且準確 地作工期推估，並可作為合約工期訂定與工期展延計算之參考。 To get projects done on time, within budget and at a certain quality level has been the main concerns of a construction project. However unlike budget and quality, there is neither a systematic way to estimate duration of a project nor standard specifications to be followed. Therefore this research is aimed at establishing a duration estimating model by analyzing the WBS and identifying the duration of different categories of architecture construction projects with application of expert interviews, questionnaires, AHP, DELPHI. Summarizing the duration influencing factors, it then applies neural network technique and object-oriented techniques with practical cases to implement the model, and verify the results with Simulation techniques and Critical Chain Techniques. With the proposed model, the following contribution will be achieved. 1. The WBS templates of different categories of architecture projects will be established. 2. A duration estimation model will be established which enables the owner or contractors to estimate the duration of project within a very short time-frame. 3. The output of the proposed model could be useful information for delay analysis
