小型開放經濟中通貨膨脹與貿易型態的關係

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Title:	小型開放經濟中通貨膨脹與貿易型態的關係
Other Titles:	Inflationary Effects on the Trade Pattern in a Heckscher-Ohlin Model
Authors:	莊希豐
Contributors:	淡江大學經濟學系
Keywords:	通貨膨脹;貿易型態;Heckscher-Ohlin模型;預持現金限制式;cash-in-advance constraint;Heckscher–Ohlin model;inflation;pattern of trade
Date:	2009
Issue Date:	2010-04-15 15:33:33 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	通貨膨脹一直是大家所關心的議題，它在國際貿易中應該也有著舉足輕重的影響力；通常當一國的通貨膨脹攀升會對其出口不利，相反的會使得進口的成本下降，因此通貨膨脹的變動能使一國的國際貿易進出口量改變，甚至使得一國的貿易型態改變，所以通貨膨脹會如何影響國際貿易量以及其型態是個值得探討的議題。本文用Heckscher-Ohlin的模型並利用預持現金 (cash-in-advance) 限制式將貨幣引入經濟體系來探討在小型開放經濟體中通貨膨脹如何去影響貿易的型態。在Jones 和Neary (1984) 所提的標準國際貿易模型中，要素供給在貿易型態上扮演重要角色。而 Stockman (1985) 表示通貨膨脹可能透過勞動及資本供給去影響貿易型態。其文章顯示在一個小型開放經濟中，通貨膨脹些微的變動便可對貿易型態造成巨大的影響：如果貨幣成長率超過某固定值，此經濟只出口勞動密集財而進口資本密集財；若貨幣成長率下降到低於此固定值，此經濟將完全專業化只生產資本密集財而進口勞動密集財。Roldos (1992) 再以特定要素 (specific-factor) 模型將Stockman (1985) 的問題重新探討，得到的結果為通貨膨脹對貿易量造成平滑 (smooth) 的效果而終致於變動貿易型態。 Stockman (1985) 和Roldos (1992) 的文章都強調受到通貨膨脹變動影響的資本累積的角色，也就是強調要素供給效果。本計劃的目的在透過模型架構的設計去找出除了要素供給效果之外，其他通貨膨脹可以影響貿易型態的管道。除了將特定要素模型改為Heckscher-Ohlin的模型，預持現金限制式的設計也更一般化並較符合實際經濟狀況：譬如資本購買不須用現金（視為信用財），而消費商品須使用現金的比例為0到1之間。透過一般均衡最適化處理做恆定狀態 (steady state) 分析。 In standard models of international trade as surveyed by Jones and Neary (1984), factor supplies play a key role in determining trade patterns. Stockman (1985) has shown how inflation may affect the pattern of trade by affecting the supply of labor and capital. Using a Heckscher – Ohlin model with money introduced through a cash-in-advance constraint, ha has demonstrated that a small change in the rate of inflation may have a drastic effect on the pattern of trade in a small open economy: if the rate of monetary expansion exceeds a critical value, the economy exports only, say, the labor-intensive goods and imports the capital-intensive goods; a reduction in the rate of monetary growth below that critical value would cause the economy to specialize completely in the production of the capital-intensive goods and to import the labor-intensive goods. Stockman’s results were reexamined in a specific-factors model by Roldos (1992). It is shown that the change in inflation would cause a smooth change in the volume of trade and eventually cause a change in the pattern of trade. Both Stockman (1985) and Roldos (1992) were confined to the steady-state analysis, and they emphasized the role of capital accumulation induced by a change in inflation, that is, the factor-supply effect. Seldom literature has talked about the role that production structure might have in influencing the effect of inflation. The adoption of the Heckscher–Ohlin model in this project allows us to broaden the discussion. According to the literature on cash in advance, it is shown that the composition of the cash-in-advance constraint plays an important role in determining the effects of inflation. In the project, we generate a more general cash-in-advance constraint that contains only two consumption purchases and allow a fraction between 0 and 1 for the two goods to be purchased by cash. We first treat labor supply as exogenous, then consider an endogenous labor/leisure choice to examine its negative role on variables. This project may make a contribution in finding additional channel through which inflation affect the pattern of trade and supplement the literature in this field.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute & Department of Economics] Research Paper

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