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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/4524


    Title: 乾旱週期之探討─級值序列方法
    Authors: 虞國興;林豪彥;沈再勇
    Contributors: 淡江大學水資源及環境工程學系
    Keywords: 級值序列;乾旱;週期;Order series;Drought;Periodicity
    Date: 2001-01-01
    Issue Date: 2009-03-19 14:17:02 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: 中國農業工程學會
    Abstract: 本研究以傳統週期檢定方法分別分析太陽黑子之原始序列及其級值序列,結果顯示級值序列之偵測週期為11年,與天文學者所提出之結果相同。同時為進一步深入探討級值序列與原始序列於週期檢定之差異,本研究分別分析調和均數函數及長記憶模式所產生之單週期合成資料,結果顯示若原始序列具有強烈干擾項,其級值序列之週期檢定結果較佳。另,為探討台灣水文資料乾旱週期,本研究同時分析台灣最長不降雨日數,其切割水準分別為年平均雨量與1.5倍年平均雨量,及乾季降雨量之實測資料及其級值序列,結果顯示北區及東區無明顯之週期;中區有11.11年之週期;南區有10年之週期。 The periodicity detected in the order series of the sunspots data is 11 year, which is the same as the result detected by astronomers. In order to study the difference between the raw data and its order series, the synthetic data generated by using harmonic functions and long-memory time series models are tested respectively. It is shown in the results that the periodic signal with significant noise added is better detected in its order series. In this study, the drought periodicity in the hydrologic data of Taiwan is also detected. The periodicity detected in the central region is 11.11 years; 10years in the southern region; but no significant periodicity is detected in the northern and eastern regions.
    Relation: 農業工程學報 47(1),頁 53-64
    Appears in Collections:[水資源及環境工程學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

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