中國大陸經濟的興起再度印證市場經濟模式下近代經濟成長的可能性，更是自由經濟體制下互補性經濟發展的呈現，亦使世界經濟朝向擴大均衡的發展。特別是1990年代中國大陸經濟轉型為漸進式自由市場經濟體制後，與世界經濟進一步接軌取得所謂後發展性利益所呈現出的急遽式經濟成長結果，一方面體現中國大陸經濟的比較利益，同時印證世界經濟發展接力競賽中的互補性。惟1990年代中國大陸經濟的快速興起產生所謂蛙跳現象(Leapfrogging)後，許多國家面臨其出口競爭力的威脅，而有中國威脅論的興起。本文冀由探討改革開放後中國大陸對外貿易成長中產品、市場貿易結構、貿易型態與國內外生產波及效果的變化，以了解中國大陸經濟發展的蛙跳現象，分析其出口競爭力所在及發展策略，並檢視製品出口產業對其經濟體及貿易對手國的影響。從本文探討發現，改革開放後中國大陸的外資與出口導向發展策略，特別是1990年代中機械製品的加工出口擴張策略應是其出口快速成長的主要原因之一。2000年中國大陸機械產業發展成最具影響力的出口領導部門，而1990年代中其對日本、臺灣以外其他東亞國家的生產波及效果亦主增強的現象。但是，在美國、日本、中國大陸與東亞國家間所形成的機械產業的生產關聯關係中，對臺灣的生產波及程度均有減低的現象。 The rising Chinese economy after reforms has portrayed not only the possibility of Modern Economic Growth under the free market economy once again, but also the complementarities and the sequences of the world economic development. For the gradual reforms from socialist economy to the market economy through outward economic development strategy, the radical Chinese export growth has come out through the comparative advantage of relatively abundant labor resource. Though complementary structure between China and the world economies has been recognized, the discrepant view about the threat of the Chinese economic development has also been left, owing to the leapfrogging phenomenon accompanied with the rapid growth of China's economic and trade development, especially in the 1990s. This paper investigates the dynamics of China's trade structures, RCA, trade patterns and production induced mechanism in order to clarify whether leapfrogging phenomenon happened, and try to identify the reasons. FDI and export-oriented strategies of China's open door policy, especially the strategy of finished product export promotion without the supply chain industries' full range import substitution of ICT products in 1990s, is considered to be one of the major reasons to China's machinery and transport equipments' rapid export growth. Through investigating backward and forward linkage effects also export and net export coefficient, machinery and equipment sector has been confirmed as the most powerful export leading sector in 2000. Also the incremental outward backward linkage effects of China's machinery and transport sector to East Asian countries, except Taiwan and Japan, have been detected. For the induced mechanism of machinery and transport sector through international division of labor composed by USA, Japan and China have enlarged backward linkage effects to East Asian countries, except Taiwan, directly or indirectly through China.
