There is no forever power in human history. The rising East Asia vs. Western model seems to reemerge. China is rising. The sun is rising too. It is the first time in history for both nations being strong at the same time. Japan is an old giant in East Asia. After falling asleep for hundreds of years, the China dragon has wakened up and become an expected star in the 21st century. The stable Japan-China relationships are not only for East Asian happiness today, but also for their success tomorrow. Japan and China are enjoying the complementary economic relationships, but it is a totally different picture in the political and military fields. This kind of relationship is called “politics cold and economies hot.”
The increasing China’s military threat and worsening Japan-China relationships are forcing Japan-U.S. alliance to become closer. This context has made Japan as the spokesman of U.S. in the East Asia. A typical example is the first East Asian Summit. Because U.S. is not officially invited to join the first East Asian Summit, Japan fulfils its role of spokesman to insist the importance of U.S. participation positively. Japan intends to ally with U.S. to cope with China’s domination power.
However, Japan’s future and that of China are closely linked. Both leaders have wisdom to create the win-win results. Realistically, Chinese government is pessimistic about the future of Japan-China relationships. Japanese hard-liners are rising. The strongest candidate for post-Koizumi, called Shinzou Abe, is also a hard-liner toward China. Consequently, it is not easy to mitigate the Japan-China conflicts in the post-Koizumi times. Furthermore, the Japan-China relationships are shifting from “politics cold and economies hot” to “politics cold and economies cool.”
在人類的歷史裡沒有永遠的強權，復権中的東洋對抗西洋之模式似乎再度浮現。中國在崛起，日本也在旭日東昇，這是史上第一次兩個國家同時處於強盛狀態。日本是戰後的東亞的大國，中國這條龍經過數百年的沉睡之後終於醒過來，變成二十一世紀的明日之星。穩定的日中關係決定東亞地區國家的現在和未來。日中雙方共享經濟互補關係，但是政治和軍事關係卻是相當冷淡，因此日中關係被形容為「政冷經熱」。
中國軍事威脅論的升溫、日中關係的惡化、共同利益糾葛和區域糾紛使得日美同盟關係越來越緊密，日本變成美國在東亞的代言人。例如首屆東亞高峰會裡，美國並未正式受邀參與，日本積極地扮演代言角色，一再強調美國參與的重要性，企圖拉攏美國來制衡中國的主導力量。
日本和中國的未來是緊密地連結在一起，雙方領導人應有智慧創造雙贏結果。可惜事實上，中國對雙方關係的前景抱持悲觀，日本的對中強硬派也逐漸抬頭，且被視為最有可能的小泉首相繼承人安倍晋三官房長官也是強硬派。所以日中關係想要在後小泉時代開創新局並不容易。況且最近的日中關係已漸漸從「政冷經熱」轉為「政冷經涼」。
關聯:
臺灣國際研究季刊=Taiwan International Studies Quarterly 2(2)，頁151-177
