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淡江大學機構典藏 > 國際事務學院 > 中國大陸研究所 > 期刊論文 > Item 987654321/43193

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题名:	Political change and public security-the prospect of Taiwan
作者:	Wang, Yu-min
贡献者:	淡江大學中國大陸研究所
日期:	1999-01
上传时间:	2010-03-01 17:13:35 (UTC+8)
出版者:	Kidlington: Pergamon Press
摘要:	This paper examines the change in public security of the Taiwanese society that was caused by the political democratization movements and the cross-Strait interactions. In addition to sociological explanations of crime, this paper adopts and integrates theoretical concepts of futures studies. Official statistics of longitudinal essence were utilized to serve the purpose of macro analyses. Delphi survey method was employed in collecting micro data that were subsequently used for forecasting the future social life individuals anticipate. Findings support the macro hypothesis that political alteration directly as well as indirectly contributes to the change of public security. A chaotic progress in social order is in sight, and the restoration of public safety is not far away. The series of scenarios, forecasting on the basis of the timeframe concepts of futurists, is likely to begin and conclude within the coming five years. However, the manner the scenarios proceed can be altered depending upon how knowledgeable the government is in foreseeing the forthcoming probable future of chaos.
關聯:	Futures 31(1), pp.57-72
DOI:	10.1016/S0016-3287(98)00110-4
显示于类别:	[中國大陸研究所] 期刊論文

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0016-3287_31(1)p57-72.pdf		70Kb	Adobe PDF	356	检视/开启

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