水庫供水的主要來源為本身儲存的水量及入流量，但入流量具有不確定性，因此在不預期的乾旱時期水庫供水量有時無法滿足既定的需求量。良好的水庫營運規則可使缺水的影響減到最低，如何將水庫入流量的不確定性併入水庫的供水規則為本文的研究重點。對於水庫入流量，本文考慮歷史紀錄流量中最小入流量與入流量條件平均值（定義為已知前月入流量時本月入流量之平均值），並以其對需水量的關係作為水庫的供水指標。水庫的營運結果則以缺水特性，包括缺水延時、缺水量及缺水頻率等相關缺水指標來評估。文末則以簡化的石門水庫單目標供水系統為例，說明本文所研擬的供水策略對水庫營運的影響。 Stored water and inflow are two major components for reservoir water supplies. However, uncertainty of inflow often causes insufficient supplies during unexpected drought period. A good releasing policy of reservoirs should minimize the negative effects of water shortages. Combining the factor of inflow into reservoir releasing policies is the major purpose of this study. Two types of inflow, minimal monthly inflow and conditional expectation inflow, are considered. The ratio of stored water and inflow to demand is used as an indicator to determine the releasing water. The effects of various releasing policies are evaluated by shortage indices, including duration, severity, and frequency. The data from Shihmen Reservoir is used as an example to illustrate the proposed releasing policies.
第十三屆水利工程研討會論文集(上冊)=Proceedings of the 13th Hydraulic Engineering Conference (I)，頁B-9-B-16