| Abstract: | 全球各國對於溫室效應議題已達成初步共識－京都議定書亦於日前生效，目前台灣雖未正式受到約制，但全球溫室氣體排放減量趨勢銳不可擋，及早商應對策因應、擬定減量日程規劃、減低社、產、經界之衝擊已為刻不容緩的新時代挑戰。
本研究主要目的在除了提出調整產業結構、提高能源使用效率、建立完善之溫室氣體盤查制度…等概念性目標之餘，試就能源使用情形、二氧化碳排放量、貿易出口情形等，量化至2020年前之CO2逐年減量參考估計值。嘗試以最小平方法迴歸歷年數據，並以一元多次多項式模擬截至2020年前之預估值，將各預估值以最佳化整合，探討逐年最佳減量值及減量與否之影響性。
以2020年為減量目標年預估，比較其排放與否情形，工業部門CO2排放量將鉅差186,498.88千公噸，相當於3,569,998.12百萬新台幣，亦相當於70,800,017.89千秉油當量（以2005年之比例換算）。
國內溫室氣體減量共識不足、CO2排放量之預估模型機制尚未成熟公開、相關人員投入研究使用時的便利性不足…等都將阻滯此議題之研究，遲緩減量政策之推動與實施，落實節能教育與相關研究公開化將有助於改善此類問題。
This studies a main purpose at in addition to put forward adjusting the industrial structure, raise an energy usage efficiency and build up perfect of the glasshouse air investigates and searches system …etc. concept target, trying to aim at the energy usage situation, carbon dioxide emission, trade export situation etc., the quantity turns go to before 2020 of the CO2 reduces to measure a reference estimate of a value year by year. Try with the least square method regression through the years data, with polynomial of one indeterminate simulation valuation in advance 2020 years ago, integrate each estimate by optimization, discuss year by year the best reduce the quantity value and reduce quantity or not it influence.
It is annual to regard 2020 years as the reduce goal, estimate CO2 emission reduce or not , emission , CO2 emission amount disparity of estimating the industrial department in advance is 186,498.88 thousand metric tons in advance, equal to NT$3,569,998,120,000, also equal to 70,800,017,890 thousand kiloliter oil equivalents.(BE converted with the comparison of 2005)
The consensus of the CO2 reduces quantity in Taiwan is shortage, the model about estimate the CO2 emission quantity is still immaturity public, related personnel devotion study to use of convenience is shortage …etc. all will baffling the research of this subject, the promotion and the implement of the policy about the CO2 reduce emission will slow down. Carry out an education to economize on energy and publish the related research will contribute to improving this kind of problem. |
