近年來常見石材廣泛地被應用於建築構造物及室內裝修等用途。台灣石材產業之特色，係上、中、下游產業之關聯性極高，而該產業之經營主要係以石材加工為主，再漸次跨越到上游原礦石之開發、並延伸至下游產品之設計或直（間）接行銷（如進入最終使用市場或推介建築師設計使用）。 本研究係以台灣石材業二次加工廠為背景，透過現場參訪所得資訊探討並模擬石材二次加工廠從原石裁切加工廠進貨再次加工，最後將製品送至施工現場安裝流程中經歷的不確定性動態變化：如訂單率、加工過程、製品安裝、各階段存貨、以及各式成本支出等。研究方法為利用系統動態學動態因果回饋環路的觀念，模擬系統內變數間存在之不確定性與複雜的關係，並透過變數間關係式的構建，來預測並掌握整個系統的風險與後續影響。最後再針對建構之模型進行驗證與策略分析，以確定模型之有效性及藉由策略模擬結果可幫助石材業者提早擬定各項決策。本研究主要應用軟體為系統動態軟體『Stella』。 本研究之具體成果為提出一套適合石材產業之進、出、存貨管理與成本計算的電腦輔助工具，以協助石材加工業者快速模擬並妥善控制存貨量且降低支出成本。 Stone material has long been applied in the construction of landscaping and structure. The supply chain of the Taiwan stone industry involves mining, processing, carving, designing and marketing. To handle the complex environment and uncertainty factors faced by the carving manufacturer, this study develops a system dynamics model, which is based on real-life data collected through interviews with practitioners, to simulate the dynamic supply chain of the stone industry in the presence of uncertainty. Initially, the study adopts the feedback loop approach to build the relationships among key factors, such as order amount and frequency, processing and installation productivity, inventory level, and various costs. On the basis of the relationships, the system dynamics model is developed to assess the influence of uncertainty and thus to manage risks involved in the supply chain. The primary goal is to help processing manufacturer articulate strategic policies to control inventory levels and reduce related costs. The present system dynamics model is implemented in a commercial software package STELLA.
