BOT工程計畫之財務分析，因其興建所投資之經費龐大且需歷經一段漫長的時間，變數多且風險大。民營業者投資BOT計畫的主要考量為投資報酬率，因此財務分析是重要的工作。為了妥適評估財務風險，電腦模擬已被廣泛應用於BOT專案之投資策略分析。然而，財務因子通常具有不確定性，且因子間可能存在相關性，若忽略此特性會大幅度影響財務分析結果，進而導致錯誤之BOT專案投資策略。 本研究採用蒙地卡羅模擬法（Monte Carlo Simulation Method），運用相關性多變量亂數產生技術NORTA（NORmal To Anything）來產生不同分佈具共變異性的財務因子。考慮不同的相關性情境，再利用電腦技術重複模擬，以獲得財務評估指標。 過去研究僅直接運用套裝軟體進行共變異性的模擬，而缺乏學理上之分析與驗證。本研究建構出一套簡單具實用性的BOT計畫財務評估系統，以協助決策者進行風險管理。本研究提出之系統應用於台北港擴建與桃園港增建之方案比較。 The financial feasibility analysis is essential in Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) projects, which are exposed various sources of uncertainty as they usually require heavy investment and relatively long time to complete. Despite the widespread applications of computer simulation in evaluating the financial feasibility of BOT projects, some of previous works neglected the correlations between financial components, e.g., construction costs, maintenance costs, and port charges. Such neglect can cause serious consequences because of the misleading analysis results. The present study incorporates the NORTA method into Monte Carlo simulation to sample correlated financial components, which are used to evaluate four common financial criteria: net present value, internal rate of return, payback period, and self-liquidation ratio. The proposed model is tested to assess the impacts of different correlation scenarios. Whereas some of past studies used commercial software packages to address correlated financial components without further theoretical discussions, this study builds a simple yet practicable financial evaluation model to help decision makers properly manage financial risks. The proposed model has been applied to projects of Taipei port extension and Taoyuan port construction.
