本文主要探討政策變遷理論，並提出研究架構。在本文的分析架構中，包括二個部分：以Brian W. Hogwood與B. Guy Peters所提出的變遷分析指標與變遷類型，作為政策變遷形式的分析方式，並提出4個指標去分析變遷結果；另外，運用John W. Kingdon與Nikolaos Zahariadisa對多重流模型的觀點，作為變遷過程之探討方式。在個案上選擇以「國民教育課程」政策作為分析對象。研究方法選擇以內容分析法作為資料分析方法。 研究發現：（一）九年一貫課程初期並未受到廣泛注意與討論。（二）在發展過程中，有二個受到注意與討論的高峰點，分別是：2002年11月與2003年9月。（三）在政策發展過程中，對於該政策的共識程度並不高。（四）教育部長扮演重要的角色，前期扮演政策推介角色，後期扮演問題解決角色。（五）有關流程的看法，未必如Kingdon認為的流程彼此相互獨立發展。（六）匯集概念並非只能分析短期之變遷情況，更能夠追蹤長期的變化趨勢。 針對上述研究發現，認為在政策變遷的過程中，前面規劃期應該拓大社會參與以及加強監督著手，以減少事後犯錯的頻率。另外從變遷理論的角度而言，本文從多重流模型中的流程與匯集概念進行分析，屬於宏觀角度；因此未來研究可從政策企業家的微觀角度著手探討，進一步證實研究結果。 The main theme of this essay is to analyze the changing in curriculum policy. Its contents includes as following: first, with policy change related theories, the researcher propose the analysis framework. This framework consists of policy change type and policy change process. Using Brian W. Hogwood and B. Guy Peters’ concept to analyze the curriculum policy change type, and applying multiple streams theory to explain the policy change process. Second, this theme selects curriculum policy in primary and secondary school as research objective and uses content analysis method to analyze newspaper data. The findings are as follows:1) the initial stage of curriculum policy development does not to attract much attention; 2) the data show that there are two peaks in development process; 3) there are a low degree about the policy common consensus in curriculum policy development; 4) minister of education play an important role: to advertise curriculum policy in early stage and be a solver after to carry out this policy; 5) the streams viewpoint different from Kingdon’s point that these steams are independent. On the contrary, more similar Zahariadis argument that each stream having a life of its own; 6) the coupling analysis not only a short-term change point but also a long-term change tendency. In accordance with research finding, I suggest two key points for future development: first, we should increase the society participant and enhance supervise in the policy development stage. Second, from the viewpoint of policy change theory it can use a micro perspective to analyze for latter research.
