| 摘要: | 自2001年桃芝颱風侵襲後，中央災害應變中心之颱洪應變，採取主動疏散避難，取代早期在危機事件發生後的傳統式被動搶救。分析顯示，因颱洪災害而死亡及失蹤人數，在主動應變前約為應變後的2倍。應變前死亡及失蹤人數與24小時集中豪雨有關，而應變後則與颱風襲台期間的總雨量關係更為密切。顯見，應變已然奏效，然而應變後與總雨量高度的密切關係，顯與過度開發及濫墾有關，雖然集中豪雨已過，但因土壤含水量豐富，一旦有稍大雨勢，因人們的疏忽而造成二度災害。
颱洪應變之主動預警疏散，必須充分掌握颱風動態、降雨之強度與空間分佈，以及環境脆弱地區可能致災規模與衝擊程度等加以綜整、分析和研判等。要提升分析研判功能，加強基礎硬體建設及充實資料庫、發展模式與方法，建置分析決策與管理系統、強化橫向資料整合研判與合作和強化溝通與表達能力，以及加強防災宣導與建立社區防救災觀念等是必要的。
卡玫基造成中南部嚴重水患，除超大雨量集中、超大豪雨發生於深夜至凌晨及颱風環流與西南氣流在台灣西南沿海會合之前所未有的氣象條件外，就颱洪應變而言，中央災害應變中心的分析研判會議及工作會報之舉行狀況，似乎有些關連。然而此次氣象預報未能符合國人的期望，因此，如何強化颱風豪雨預報能力及分析研判功能是必須的。中央氣象局在風雨預報更新頻率及警報呼籲的力道不足，也是需要改進的。此外，颱洪期間的應變必須依照災害防救法及中央災害應變中心作業要點運作，如此才會降低颱洪所帶來的損失。
Since the invasion of Typhoon Toraji, the Central Emergency Operation Center (CEOC) in the Central Government of Taiwan has adjusted its responding mechanism to the occurrence of typhoon and flooding over Taiwan area, by taking an approach of proactive evacuation instead of the previous passive rescue action after damage occurrence. The analysis shows the number of dead and missing people resulted from typhoon and flooding has lessened about a half compared with that by earlier mechanism. And also, the toll number shows to be connected with the intensive heavy rain in a 24-hour period for the old mechanism, but related to the total amount of precipitation during typhoon invasion in new approach. It seems that the new approach takes effect. And such high correlation it appeared is very likely to be induced by overly developing and denuding the land, which would easily bring about secondary damage in merely moderate rainfall as high water content in the soil.
This proactive warning and evacuation approach relies on proper understanding and assessment of typhoon movement, rainfall intensity and its spatial distribution, the potential magnitude and impact of damage over environment vulnerable areas. And to enhance its functions of analysis and interpretation on above information, it would be essential to improve the infrastructure and database, advance appropriate models, create an analysis, policy-making, and management system, strengthen data integration, reinforce the communication and the ability interpretation of the forecaster , and promote disaster prevention education along with community preparedness.
In view of the severe floods over the Central and South Taiwan brought by Typhoon Kalmaegi in 2008, the analysis and interpretation efforts and working group meetings at the CEOC may have somewhat relation, apart from the objective criteria as extremely torrential rain intensively took place during the mid night to dawn and an unprecedented weather condition of merging of the typhoon circulation and southwesterly flow along the southwest coast. Since weather predictions on this event are not satisfactory, further improvements of abilities of forecast over typhoon induced heavy rainfall and of information interpretation are in urgent need. In addition, the updated and dissemination frequency of regional gale and rainfall estimates as well as warning wording by the Central Weather Bureau need to adjust. More importantly, all the response actions are required to comply with provisions in related regulations to ensure a minimum loss going with these weather events. |
