當進行產品可靠度的分析及改善時，通常需要做產品的抽樣壽命實驗，希望能利用已觀測到的產品壽命來預測尚未發生故障的樣本壽命。本文假設所取得的樣本型態分兩種，第一種資料型態為右型II設限樣本觀測值，第二種資料型態為排序集合樣本，在所取得的樣本壽命觀測值下，利用貝氏方法預測未來產品發生故障的壽命區間。 本文主要分為兩部份，第一部份探討當產品樣本壽命服從Burr type X分配的右型II設限樣本，給定在最後一筆失效的樣本觀測值 ，預測同一條生產線上尚未發生故障元件的壽命區間，此情形稱為單樣本預測；第二部份探討產品樣本壽命服從Burr type X分配的排序集合樣本，得到的資料為整組樣本的主對角線觀測值，利用給定在第i個發生故障的排序集合樣本之下，預測另一條生產線第s個尚未發生故障元件的壽命區間，此情形稱為雙樣本預測。同時分別利用電腦模擬資料加以數值計算與分析。 In the researching on the reliability of products and improvement, usually need to carry out life test. During life testing, the future observations in an ordered sample are often expected to be predicted. In this thesis, we have two different data types: one is under the type II censored samples,the other is ranked set samples. We adopted Bayesian method to obtain the prediction intervals of future ordered observation for the products. This paper presents two parts, one is under the type II censored sample from Burr type X distribution, adopted Bayesian method only based on the only ordered observation to obtain the prediction intervals of the future observations, this called one-sample case. The second part is under ranked set samplesfrom Burr type X distribution, we adopted Bayesian method only based on the onlyto obtain the prediction intervals of the future type II censored lifetime observations. Finally, we give some examples and Monte Carlo simulation to assess the behavior of the method based on the failure samples.
