在研究有關產品可靠度方面的問題時，通常需進行壽命試驗，而在試驗進行當中，常希望能預測部份尚未發生故障的樣本壽命，已決定是否變更生產計畫或採行其他決策的參考。本文即希望能利用所取得產品發生故障之右型II設限樣本壽命觀測值來預測未來產品發生故障之區間，做為評估及改善產品可靠度的依據。 本文主要探討的是樣本壽命觀測值服從柏拉圖分配的右型II設限樣本 ，以貝氏的論點在給定最後一筆故障觀測值下來求取未來觀測值之預測區間並與Nigm et al. (2003)所提出的方法進行比較。如果 由於人工疏忽導致遺失，那Nigm et al.的方法就不適用；此外，順序觀測值 的條件機率密度函數給定在 並與給定在 的條件密度函數ㄧ致。最後提出數值範例來說明。 While researching on the reliability of products, usually need to carry on life test. The result of life testing is used as the basis for the evaluation and improvement of reliability. During life testing, the future observations in an ordered sample are often expected to be predictor as to determine whether the production schedule should be altered or adopting other decision of conduct. This paper presents that under the right type II censored samples from Pareto distribution, adopted Bayesain method only based on the only to obtain the prediction intervals of the future observations and compares with the method proposed by Nigm et al. (2003). If some of are missing since artificial negligence occur, then Nigm et al.’s method may not be an appropriate choice. Moreover, the conditional probability density function of the ordered observation given is equivalent to the conditional p.d.f. of given . Numerical examples are provided to illustrate these results.
