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    題名: 需求反應運輸服務需求分析之研究-以醫療運輸為例
    其他題名: A study on transport demand of demand responsive transport - a case study of medical service
    作者: 林聖偉;Lin, Sheng-wei
    貢獻者: 淡江大學運輸管理學系碩士班
    張勝雄;Chang, Sheng-hsiung
    關鍵詞: 需求反應運輸;醫療運輸;個體選擇模式;電腦輔助面訪調查法;Demand Responsive Transport;Medical trip;Discrete choice model;Computer Assisted Personal Interview
    日期: 2005
    上傳時間: 2010-01-11 04:35:10 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 面對高齡化社會的來臨,醫療運輸服務需求日愈增多,如何利用需求反應運輸(Demand Responsive Transport, DRT)系統等先進技術,提供更經濟、便捷的醫療運輸服務,以滿足使用者的多樣化需求,為一值得探討的重要課題。然而,需求反應運輸服務仍屬新興運輸方式,各種影響系統運作之因素,如預約時間、車內時間、車外時間、費用及相關服務要素等亦與一般運具不同,對需求之影響亦尚無實證研究佐證,無法評估實施需求反應運輸服務之可行性。緣此,本研究之目的在探討以需求反應運輸提供醫療運輸服務時,影響醫療運輸需求之因素,並分析不同營運情境下之需求數量,俾供未來評估系統可行性之參考。
    由於需求反應運輸之需求屬性(如起迄點、旅次長度)往往因人而異,本研究乃採電腦輔助面訪調查法(Computer Assisted Personal Interview, CAPI),依照受訪者的屬性藉由平板電腦產生符合個人運具服務之特定情境,進行互動式問卷調查。再依所調查的選擇資料建立敘述性偏好構建多項羅吉特(MNL)與巢式羅吉特(NMNL)運具選擇模式,並比較其差異,替選運具包括DRT、公車、計程車、小汽車、機車、捷運等六種。且透過市場區隔分析不同市場使用者之偏好差異。
    研究結果顯示,各類模式中以考慮選擇集合之MNL模式與以費用高低分巢之NMNL模式配適度較佳。而透過市場區隔分析可知,不同旅次長度、使用頻率與使用者年齡對於DRT服務亦有不同的偏好。使用者選擇DRT的重要因素為舒適度與輔具的提供,且對於骨科、神經科與復健科等科別之就醫者有較大之效用。此外,DRT服務之車外時間價值比一般運具低,車內時間彈性隨距離增加而變大,車外時間彈性隨距離增加而減少。DRT提供服務後,運具之市場佔有率預估約為30.9%。
    Demand of medical transportation is going to increase in aged society. According to the foreign experiences, Demand Responsive Transport(DRT) can provide more economic and convenience transportation service, and improve the accessibility of taking medical treatment. However, DRT is a new transport service in our society; there are still no empirical studies to evaluate the factors that affect its operation and demand amount. The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors that affect the user to choose DRT service and to develop a discrete choice model which can be used to estimate the quantity of demand and to assess the feasibility of DRT.
    Because the demand attributes are vary for every individual users, we conduct a Computer Assisted Personal Interview(CAPI)survey with Table PC which can develop individual scenario for each user. The survey provide Stated Preference(SP)of potential users and are used to construct several discrete choice model which include Multinomial Logit Model (MNL) and Nested Multinomial Logit (NMNL). The choice set include DRT, bus, taxi, vehicle, motorcycle and MRT.
    The results show that the MNL with proper choice set and the NMNL grouped by fare are the best two models compared to the others. According to the market segmentation analysis, the users with different travel lengths, using frequencies and users’ age have different preference models for DRT. The main factors of choosing the DRT are comfort and the need of auxiliary equipments. DRT has more efficacies for the patients of the deportments of orthopaedics surgery, neurology and rehabilitation. The study estimate the market share of DRT is 30.9% by the choice model. The other findings include that the value of off-vehicle time of DRT service is lower than other transport mode, and the longer travel distance the more in-vehicle time elasticity and the less out-vehicle time elasticity.
    顯示於類別:[運輸管理學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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