計乘車配對共乘之需求預測與績效分析-以內湖科技園區為例

淡江大學機構典藏 > 商管學院 > 運輸管理學系暨研究所 > 學位論文 > Item 987654321/33820

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題名:	計乘車配對共乘之需求預測與績效分析-以內湖科技園區為例
其他題名:	Demand modeling of taxi ride-sharing : a case study of Neihu technology park
作者:	許智安;Hsu, Chi-an
貢獻者:	淡江大學運輸管理學系碩士班石豐宇;Shyr, Feng-yeu
關鍵詞:	汽車共乘;需求模式;taxi ride-sharing;demand modeling
日期:	2007
上傳時間:	2010-01-11 04:34:32 (UTC+8)
摘要:	近年來歐美日等先進國家針對都會區尖峰通勤旅次所造成的交通壅塞、高通勤成本以及大量石油消耗等問題，而致力於汽車共乘(carpool)的研究，其理念與運輸需求管理中的高承載車輛(High Occupancy Vehicle, HOV)相近。台北都會區同樣面臨著嚴重的交通擁擠問題，但是由於缺乏積極推廣與其他因素刺激，使得私人汽車共乘風氣不盛。然而在台北都會區存在另一種共乘方案-計程車共乘，大眾運輸的旅運者是主要的使用者。它通常由計程車司機在公車或捷運站附近招攬目的地相近的乘客來共乘。藉由商車營運(CVO)平台中既有的配對演算法，我們能夠媒合不同起訖點但是具有相同路線的旅運者，讓他們共乘一輛計程車。根據文獻，我們找出能刺激與推廣共乘使用的一些特性，以及使用者對於共乘態度是影響共乘的重要因子。本研究在為期17天的實驗中，讓使用者在有實際搭乘經驗之下填答問卷。藉由多變量分析方式了解使用者對於共乘的滿意度以及解釋內外在的顯著因子。接著應用羅吉特模式分析需求以及由模式來預測轉移情形。根據分析結果，本研究發現大多數的使用者為中等收入以及缺乏私人運具。主要轉移量的來源為大眾運輸的旅運者。因此結論出計程車共乘具有彌補大眾運輸的功能。根據羅吉特模式的校估顯示，實際付費的有無確實會影響共乘的選擇行為。除了旅行時間、旅行成本以及月收入為兩群均顯著之變數之外，旅次複雜度對於付費群為顯著變數；而車輛持有對於非付費群為顯著變數。本研究的結果中指出計程車共乘的確會使計乘車的使用量顯著上升，但是由整體外部成本分析，由於主要轉移來源為大眾運輸旅次而使的外部成本呈現上升的情形，平均每天會增加50051元外部成本。本研究另外針對私人運具之使用成本分別以10%、15%、20%增加來分析轉移行為，結果發現私人運具之旅次會轉向計程車、大眾運輸與共乘，使整體外部成本分別減少了157364元、157586元以及157777元。 In recent years, developed countries like USA, EU and Japan devoted themselves in the practices and impact assessment of ridesharing in order to reduce high commuting cost and large fuel consumption during peak hours of commuting trips in metropolis. The idea of ridesharing is adopted as part of the promotion of High Occupancy Vehicles (HOV) to ease traffic jam. Though traffic jam problem is serious, the idea of ride-sharing is not popular in the Taipei metropolis because there is little promotion and almost no incentive for commuter to ride sharing. However, taxi ridesharing is an alternative of ride-sharing for commuters, especially for the users of public transit. It is often that taxi drivers pick up passengers who have nearby destinations in major bus transfer stations or MRT stations. By the implementation matching algorithm under the platform of CVO, we could match travelers who depart from and arrive at different locations but sharing similar routes to ride in the same taxi. In the literature review, we found that the characteristics of user as long as promotion and incentives, and user’s attitude toward ride-sharing are important factors in ride sharing practices. In this study we design a questionnaire to collect users’ responses of their ride-sharing experience during the 17-day experiment period. We analyze the data by using multivariate analysis methods to understand users’ gree of satisfaction regarding taxi-ridesharing and to explore the internal and external factor affecting the practices. Next, we apply Logit model to analyze the demand and to predict the trips transferred from various modes. As the result, we found that most of the users have medium income with no private car and motorcycle. Most of the transfers come from public transit users. Therefore, we could conclude that taxi-ridesharing is a supplement of public transit system. From the result of Logit model estimation, we found that travelers who pay the taxisharing fees have different between compared to those who did not pay the fees. And private auto ownership and transfer time are two factors as important as travel time, travel cost and income. Our study also suggests that taxi-ridesharing would significantly increase the usage of taxi. However, the daily external cost will increase by $50051 NTD(New Taiwan Dollar) due to the fact that as the main transferred trip comes from public transit. To analyze transfer behavior under various policy scenarios , we adjust the cost of motorcycle and car by 110%, 115%, and 120%. As the result, we found trips of motorcycles and cars will transfer to taxi by 6.1%, 6.3%, and 6.4%, public transit by 6.8%, 7%, and 7.1%, and taxi-rideshare by 0.30%, 0.31%, and 0.33%. The daily external cost will decrease $157364 NTD, $157586 NTD, and $157777 NTD respectively.
顯示於類別:	[運輸管理學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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