近年我國面臨人口結構變化和少子化的趨勢，直接衝擊就學人口，導致高等教育招生不足之困境。收支估測是籌編校務基金預算過程的起步，本研究採個案研究，應用作業基礎成本制度的動因概念，以個案大學的歷史資料，找出影響校務基金分項與總額收支的動因，分別建構估測模式，檢測模式的準確度，據以預測未來三年之收入與支出，分析其短絀，並提出解決方法，同時測試模式運用於其它國立綜合大學的可行性。本研究的分項與總額收入與支出模式均有良好的預測能力，也發現學生人數是各項收支的最主要動因。本研究預測個案大學未來三年收支狀況，發現短差逐年擴大，是一個值得關注的問題。本研究之模式可適用於其它教學型學校的收支估測。總額收支估測模式適於高階決策者使用，分項收支估測模式適於作業階層使用。 In recent years, there are both the structural change in population and the decline of birth rate in Taiwan. It will result in the decline of schooling population and trigger the debacle of higher education recruitment efforts. It comes natural that revenue and expenditure prediction becomes the precursor for subsequent budget planning process for the university-affair fund. This study adopts the case study, and applies the driver concepts of revenue and expenditure, in addition to apply the university historical archives to seek the budget drivers that would impact the itemized and total budgets for the university-affair fund. Further, this study develops prediction models and evaluates the prediction accuracy of the model. From this, it applies the models to predict the revenues and expenditures for the duration of three years to come. And it further analyzes its deficit and proposes the correct actions. Moreover, the model’s feasibility tests will also be conducted and verified against other national universities under similar requirements. The findings of this study indicated that the models for itemized and total revenue and expenditure exhibited fairly good prediction capabilities. The findings also pointed out that student numbers were the primary drivers for each itemized revenue and expenditure. Total revenue and expenditure model was acknowledged to be suitable for higher level decision making process, in conjunction with the fact that the corresponding operation level suitability was also accredited in the itemized revenue and expenditure prediction model.
