過去文獻大多偏向探討盈餘管理與管理當局財務預測之關係，而尚少探討有關盈餘管理與分析師預測的關聯性。然而管理當局從事盈餘管理之行為係分析師發生預測誤差的理由之一。故本研究探討盈餘管理與我國分析師預測準確性及偏誤存在何種關係，且進一步探討盈餘管理可預測性及盈餘可預測性與其之關聯性。此外，最近研究亦指出，盈餘水準與分析師盈餘預測間存有密切關聯，故本研究亦探討控制盈餘水準效果後，其盈餘管理程度、盈餘管理可預測性及盈餘可預測性與分析師預測準確性及偏誤之關係是否有所差異。本研究根據1999年至2003年台灣上市及上櫃公司進行迴歸分析，結果支持盈餘管理程度愈大與盈餘可預測性愈低時，分析師預測愈不準確性且傾向提出愈樂觀之盈餘預測。然而在控制盈餘水準後，前述關係則部份產生不同之發現，且迴歸式之整體解釋能力大幅提昇，故盈餘水準應是探討分析師預測研究中必需控制之變數。 Many studies explored the relationship between earnings management and managers’ forecast, but less studies explored earnings management and analysts’ forecast. Moreover, earnings management may cause analysts to forecast error. This study explores the association between earnings management and the accuracy and bias of analysts’ earnings forecasts. We also examine the association between earnings management predictability/ earnings predictability and forecast error. In addition, earnings level may be an important control variable in examining analysts’ forecast. We also investigate whether these associations exist significant difference between without and with controlling earnings level. Our results, according to the forecasted data from year 1999 to 2003 in Taiwan security market, support that greater the magnitude of earnings management and the lower earnings predictability is associated with less accurate and more optimistic forecasts. After controlling the earnings level, the results have some different, and the explanation ability of regression model was significantly increased. Therefore, earnings level should be controlled in analysts’ forecast.
