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https://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw/dspace/handle/987654321/33614
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| Title: | 自願性盈餘預測、公司治理機制與經營績效之關聯性：併論內生性關係 |
| Other Titles: | Voluntary earnings forecasts, corporate governance structure and corporate performance |
| Authors: | 陳諭洲;Chen, Yu-jhou |
| Contributors: | 淡江大學會計學系碩士班
洪玉舜;Hung, Yu-shun |
| Keywords: | 公司治理;資訊透明度;盈餘預測;公司績效;corporate governance;Information transparency;Earnings forecast;Corporate Performance |
| Date: | 2008 |
| Issue Date: | 2010-01-11 04:20:39 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 由於資訊不對稱的存在，經理人與外部股東對公司的價值認知產生了落差，而公司治理機制之有效性與管理當局盈餘預測皆可藉由提高資訊透明度，以減輕此代理問題，進而提升公司價值。因此，本研究欲探討我國上市櫃公司之公司治理機制有效性、盈餘預測正確性與公司績效三者間的關聯性。鑑於過去研究未完整探討盈餘預測正確性與公司治理機制間之內生關係，本研究乃以聯立方程式呈現盈餘預測正確性與公司治理機制間的因果關係；另一方面，以聯立方程式及兩階段最小平方法探討盈餘預測正確性與公司績效間之內生關係；最後，本研究探討盈餘預測正確性與公司治理機制之交乘項對公司後續績效之影響，以期說明三者間之關聯。首先，本研究探討公司治理機制之有效性與盈餘預測正確性間的因果關係，從聯立方程式(simultaneous equation)的實證結果顯示，董事會規模、獨立董事比率、職位雙重性、機構投資人持股比率、盈餘分配權、席次盈餘偏離差均與盈餘預測的正確性間存在顯著互補性的因果關係。
再者，本研究探討盈餘預測之正確性與公司績效間之關係，從聯立方程式之實證結果顯示，盈餘預測正確性與公司財務績效間存在顯著的因果關係；從兩階段最小平方法(2SLS)之實證結果顯示，當公司之財務績效愈佳，管理當局所發佈之盈餘預測正確性愈高，進而提升市場績效，顯示當公司所發佈之盈餘預測正確性較高時，其資訊透明度亦隨之提高，投資人因此給予較高之評價，因而使得公司股價報酬率較高；另外，本研究以公司治理作為工具變數，實證結果同上，當公司治理愈有效，其所發佈之盈餘預測正確性愈高，進而提升市場績效。
最後，本研究探討公司治理機制之有效性與盈餘預測正確性之交乘項對公司後續績效之影響。實證結果顯示，當董事會規模愈小且盈餘預測正確性愈高時，公司後續財務績效愈佳，顯示董事會規模與盈餘預測之正確性對於公司後續財務績效間存在互補關係；機構投資人持股比率愈高且盈餘預測之正確性較高，公司後續市場績效愈佳，顯示機構投資人持股比率與盈餘預測之正確性對於公司後續市場績效間存在互補關係；控制股東之席次控制權與盈餘分配權的偏離程度與盈餘預測之正確性對於公司後續市場績效間存在替代關係，即當控制股東之席次控制權與盈餘分配權的偏離程度愈低且盈餘預測之正確性愈低，公司後續市場績效愈佳。
本研究以聯立方程式較完整地呈現盈餘預測正確性與公司治理間的因果關係，並以兩階段最小平方法解決變數之內生性關係，導正係數估計偏誤之問題。
Since information asymmetry causes the gap of the recognition of corporate value between internal managers and outside stockholders, corporate governance mechanisms and managerial earnings forecasts can improve information transparency to mitigate the agency problem, so as to enhance corporate value. This study examines the relationship between the effectiveness of corporate governance mechanisms, the accuracy of earnings forecasts and corporate performance. Specifically, this paper studies the relationship between the effectiveness of corporate governance mechanisms and the accuracy of earnings forecasts. From Simultaneous Equation modeling, the result shows that there exists causal relationship between the accuracy of earnings forecasts and corporate governance mechanisms, such as board size, the percentage of independent directors on the board, CEO serving as the chairman, institutional ownership, the controlling shareholders’ cash flow rights, the deviation of shareholders’ controlling right from cash flow right. In addition, this paper investigates the association between the accuracy of earnings forecasts and corporate performance. From Simultaneous Equation modeling, the result shows that there exists causal relationship between the accuracy of earnings forecasts and financial performance (ROA). From 2-Stage Least Square modeling, the result displays that financial performance, the effectiveness of corporate governance is positively associated with the accuracy of earnings forecasts. Then, the accuracy of earnings forecasts is positively associated with subsequent stock performance. Finally, this study examines the impact of corporate governance mechanisms and earnings forecasts on corporate performance. The result shows that the deviation of shareholders’ controlling right from cash flow right will substitute for the inadequacy of earnings forecasts to raise corporate market performance. As the board size is smaller and earnings forecasts are accurate, corporate performance is better. Moreover, when the institutional ownership is lower and earnings forecasts are inaccurate, corporate performance is poor. |
| Appears in Collections: | [Graduate Institute & Department of Accounting] Thesis
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