一、VAR模型檢定為帝亞吉歐台灣分公司單一麥芽與調和式威士忌 銷售數字預測之最適配置。 二、台灣整體威士忌有銷售下滑的趨勢，主要因素可能為消費習慣 改變，或是物價上漲導致消費能力下降，亦或是其他如取締酒 駕日趨嚴苛所致。 三、本研究的資料量偏少，因此無法針對單一麥芽威士忌在台灣市 場未來的成長情況作有效的分析評估。 四、我國威士忌產品具有季節性效應，例如每年的十二月份總是銷 售量最好的時段。 This article is to introduce the history of Scotch whisky, the difference between single malt whisky and blended whisky. Besides consumers’ behavior have changed gradually from blended whisky as mainstream to accept rare with high quality but higher price single malt whisky. The purposes of this study are: (1) to forecast the trend of whisky industry in Taiwan, (2) to forecast the Single malt whisky category trend in Taiwan, and (3) to construct the sales develop model.
This study is based on Dickey-Fuller and Augmented Dickey-Fuller two unit root test methods and Johansen’s cointegration test method to examines the relationship between sales figure of DIAGEO Taiwan and macro economic indicators in order to forecast sales trend for whisky category. The three major variables are: (1) Consumer price index, (2) Single malt whisky sales figure, and (3) Blended whisky sales figure, and intend to understand the interaction between the three major variables. Major findings in this study are listed:
1. VAR model examination is the best model to forecast DIAGEO Taiwan single malt and blended whisky sales. 2. Whisky category shown down trend in Taiwan may primarily due to change of consumers’ behavior, or the tax inflation caused the consumer ability dropped, or others like strict driving ban. 3. Due to limitation of category information, it is not possible to develop the effective forecast model of single malt whisky in Taiwan. 4. Sales figure trend shown that Whisky has significant seasonality, for example, December is always the peak season.
