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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/33288

    Title: Logit模型預測2006年高雄市長選舉
    Other Titles: Forecast Kaohsiung mayor election by Logit model in 2006
    Authors: 黃羿菁;Huang, Yi-ching
    Contributors: 淡江大學管理科學研究所碩士班
    張紘炬;Chang, Horng-jinh
    Keywords: 選舉預測;Logit模型;Election Forecasting;Logit model
    Date: 2007
    Issue Date: 2010-01-11 03:51:23 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究主要是在探討高雄市長選舉,利用Logit模型來預測各候選人的得票率,並以人口統計變數如:行政區、性別、年齡、籍貫、教育程度與政黨傾向為研究變項,探討高雄市各選民區隔在人口統計變數上是否有顯著性。分析結果如下:
    1. Logit模型裏,人口統計變數中行政區、性別、籍貫、教育程度與政黨傾向五項解釋變數與選民投票傾向具有相關性。
    This study adopts Logit model to perform data analysis and interpret the results. Logit model is conducted by using the sampling survey method and the study range includes the Kaohsiung city area. We set our study target as the voters of the election for Kaohsiung city magistrate in 2006. we apply Logit model method to forecast the predicted voting rate for every candidate, and apply the population variances to understand the diverse voting situations of different voter groups. Results in this study:
    1.In the analysis of Logit model method, five explanatory variables, the administrative area and gender, and party partial, and education, and the province and county of one''s family register are apparently distinguished from voting tendency.
    2.The image of the candidate itself will influence his/her support from the voters. With the background of labor activity, Chu, Chen gain more supports from female voters and voters with less education background. Chun-ying, Huang , as a scholar, gains more support from voters with higher education background on the other hand.
    3.Provincialism can indeed affect the vote. Native voters support the two candidates equally and immigrant voters obviously incline to vote . Chun-ying, Huang
    4.According to the sample structure analysis, the hidden ballots in each one of the category take a high percentage at around thirty to forty percent. The accuracy of the prediction will be affect greatly by the hidden ballot
    5.The actual result of the vote showed that the vote to Chu, Chen slightly surpass the vote to. Chun-ying, Huang. Nevertheless, the prediction was . Chun-ying, Huang would gain more vote than Chu, Chen. The difference came from the fact the Chu, Chen’s supporters were less willing to show their support before the vote and also some after effect due to the investigation to Ying-jeou, Ma’s special expense case.
    Appears in Collections:[管理科學學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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