本研究針對企業不同之內外部條件下，來探討我國電子產業之上市公司其管理階層異動對股價報酬之影響。本研究運用「市場模型」及「整合灰預測市場模型」來分析，以提升本研究之準確度。而有關管理階層異動對股價報酬之影響，主要有三個相關的理論，即常識理論、惡性循環理論及代罪羔羊理論。 本研究之實證結果發現企業歷經管理階層異動後，在大部分的研究條件下，其公司股價並無明顯提升；甚至在某些情況下反而表現得更差。因此管理階層異動後，股價反應較傾向支持惡性循環理論或代罪羔羊理論。尤其若財務長遭到異動，則在多數情況下，企業之股價反應更明顯傾向支持惡性循環理論。在多頭市場下，若發生管理階層異動，則企業之股價反應傾向支持常識理論。而在空頭市場下，若發生管理階層異動，則企業之股價反應傾向支持惡性循環理論。至於在盤整市場下，若發生管理階層異動，則企業之股價反應傾向支持代罪羔羊理論。若新任主管為外部繼任者（空降）時，則企業之股價反應較傾向支持常識理論。 而在盤整時期、黃紅燈時期、黃藍燈時期，若發生管理階層異動，則企業之股價反應較傾向支持代罪羔羊理論。而在經濟情勢不佳的時期下，有關管理階層的異動大多較傾向支持惡性循環理論或代罪羔羊理論。而本研究採用「整合灰預測市場模型」來分析盤整時期之異常報酬，其顯著性遠遠勝過「市場模型」，證明「整合灰預測市場模型」之解釋能力明顯優於「市場模型」。 Top managers’ professionalism and inputs are very important and effect corporations’ operation. In order to find that how top managers’ turnover effects corporations’ operation and meanings.This paper utilized the Market Model and Grey Forecasting Model, GM(1,1), to analyze the wealth effects of top executive turnover in Taiwanese listed electronic companies. These results in this study are as follows:The observed negative abnormal returns exist following the top executive turnover. Analytical results of top executive turnover there be an important role for support the vicious cycle theory or ritual scapegoating theory in that top executive (the Chairman, General Managers and CFO), hence, top executive turnover makes negative abnormal stock returns. In bull market condition, the analytical results of top executive turnover there be an important role for support the common sense theory in that top executive (the Chairman, General Managers and CFO). In bear market condition, the analytical results of top executive turnover there be an important role for support the vicious cycle theory in that top executive (the Chairman, General Managers and CFO). In consolidation market condition, the analytical results of top executive turnover there be an important role for support the ritual scapegoating theory in that top executive (the Chairman, General Managers and CFO).
