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    题名: 幕後的NBA統計量
    其它题名: Behind the NBA statistics
    作者: 余嘉玲;Yu, Jia-ling
    贡献者: 淡江大學數學學系碩士班
    王國徵;Wang, Kui-jang
    关键词: 美國職業籃球;運動彩票;NBA;Taiwan Sports Lottery
    日期: 2009
    上传时间: 2010-01-11 02:52:17 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 我們想要建立一個模型去正確預測美國職業籃球比賽的結果,以此推測臺灣運動彩票較合理的賠率與讓分。
    我嘗試以3個分析方法來建立一個模型,分析方法一:迴歸分析方法。分析方法二:使用機率模型去估計每一隊一旦達到什麼樣的贏球條件,那場比賽他一定會贏,而贏球的機率是多少。或者是每一隊一旦達到什麼樣的輸球條件,那場比賽他一定會輸,而他輸球的機率又是多少。分析方法三:分析進入季後賽的16隊在季賽中比賽的結果,用以分析各隊的優劣點,並據以推測季後賽的勝負結果。
    本篇論文是一個很大膽的嘗試,可惜的是無法達到原始的目的;就是建立一個可運用的機率模型去做比賽結果的預測。這個結果很令人失望但也不令我太意外,因為美國職業籃球比賽的特性就是希望比賽的結果無法預測。
    We want to build a model to forecast the American professional basketball game results, presumably Taiwan sports lottery more reasonable odds and let the minutes. I try to three analysis method to establish a model.
    Analysis method 1: the regression analysis method.
    Analysis method 2: using odds model to estimate each team once what kind of winning the condition is reached, the game he will win, but what is the chance of winning. Or is each team, once you reach the kind of defeats conditions, that game he bound to lose, and he lost a game what is the chance of.
    Analysis method 3: analysis into the playoffs 16 teams in the quarter Cup competition results, analyzed the merits of each team, and according to the point, to speculate on the results of the playoffs for the victory.
    This thesis is a very bold attempt, unfortunately unable to achieve the original purpose; is set up a chance for a game of the model to do. This result is very disappointing but not unexpected that made me too, because the American professional basketball game is to hope that the characteristics of the game results cannot be predicted.
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