投資人在投資前須先了解公司的財務狀況，而要取得公司財務資訊，最容易的方法就是參考公司每三個月發表一次的財務報表。本文為利用台灣經濟新報(TEJ)所建立的財務報表資料庫下載資料，計算出財務比率來做資料分析。 一般用來判別公司表現的優劣為利用常見的18項比率做比較。由於常見財務比率有多達18項比率，逐項比較實為費時及困難。本文利用標準化以及使用百分位數，以消除公司類別差異以及景氣的影響。接著再利用預測準確率作為標準，以探討實用篩選法則。最後利用廣義估計方程式探討影響公司表現的重要財務比率，再進一步修正實用篩選法則。本文已將影響公司下一季財務表現的財務比率由18項比率篩選剩下5項比率，分別為應收帳款週轉率、股東權益比率(負債比率)、總資產週轉率、資產報酬率、現金流量比率。 本文最重要的目的為簡化必須參考的財務比率，使得利用實用篩選法則的投資人可以使用起來較為方便也較為簡易。因為公司財務報表每季資料過於龐大，使投資人不易找到重要的參考指標。所以本研究所探討出的實用的篩選法則，為一個更為簡單的篩選方法，其預測準確率平均高達0.822(傳統準確率平均高達0.960)，可以做為一個可靠的投資參考。 An investor must comprehend a company''s financial reports before investing in the company. It is easy to access the financial information of publicly traded companies in Taiwan through the official financial reports that are published every three months as required by regulation. This study calculates financial ratios and performs statistical analyses using data from a financial reports database, which is established by the Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ). However, it is time-consuming and difficult to draw any conclusion by looking at all the financial ratios simultaneously. This article first standardizes data by using median and mean absolute deviations to eliminate company category differences as well as outlier influence. Then the generalized estimating equations model (GEE) is used to develop a practical selection rule (PSR). Only five ratios are incorporated into PSR: accounts receivable turnover ratio, equity ratio (debt ratio), asset turnover ratio, return on assets, and cash flow ratio. The prediction accuracy of PSR is validated and reaches as high as 0.822 (in terms of the traditional rate of accuracy, it reaches as high as 0.960). Thus the PSR can be used as a reliable investment tool.
