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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/32495

    Title: 低利率時期,貨幣政策是否有效?
    Other Titles: Is monetary policy effective in low-interest rate period?
    Authors: 黃怡瑄;Huang, Yi-hsuan
    Contributors: 淡江大學經濟學系碩士班
    莊希豐;Chuang, Shi-feng
    Keywords: 貨幣政策;利率;匯率;股價;流動性陷阱;投資陷阱;向量自我迴歸分析;衝擊反應函數;預測誤差變異分解;Monetary policy;Interest rate;Exchange rate;Stock price;Liquidity trap;Investment trap;VAR analysis;Impulse response;Variance decomposition
    Date: 2007
    Issue Date: 2010-01-11 02:14:09 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 觀察台灣近些年的利率已調降的非常低,甚至為負的實質利率,然而國內景氣依然不振,顯示中央銀行在此時藉由調降利率來刺激經濟效果並不彰,因此本文將以貨幣觀點來研究貨幣政策傳遞機制對三個價格管道(利率、匯率和股價)的傳遞過程。
    In recent years, the interest rates in Taiwan are relative low, however the economy grows slowly. It is suggested that the job central bank to decrease interest rates and to promote outputs doesn''t work out. Thus, this paper will take a monetary view to investigate the process of monetary policy transmission mechanism.
    We use the impulse response and variance decomposition of VAR (vector autoregressive) model to discuss whether monetary policy effective in Taiwan and Japan during the observation periods.
    According to the results of impulse response, we found that the monetary policy was ineffective in both Taiwan and Japan. It implies that the three price channels-- interest rate, exchange rate and stock price channels, don''t work in the sample periods. Especially, there might be some investment traps for interest rate channel in Taiwan. Besides, there is a liquidity trap in Japan, which is in accordance with what the Keynesians argued. Finally, the outcomes of variance decomposition confirm the results obtained from impulse response model.
    Appears in Collections:[經濟學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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