國際原油市場技術分析

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Title:	國際原油市場技術分析
Other Titles:	Technical analysis on the international crude oil market
Authors:	鄭明義;Cheng, Ming-i
Contributors:	淡江大學經濟學系碩士班廖惠珠;Liao, Huei-chu
Keywords:	技術分析;陰陽線分析法;國際原油價格的波動;technical analysis;candle-stick charting method;the fluctuations of the international crude oil prices
Date:	2005
Issue Date:	2010-01-11 02:13:24 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	目前國際原油價格已創過去歷史紀錄而達高點，2005年七月份更曾高達每桶$63美元。雖然，OPEC宣稱目前的高油價乃肇因於期貨市場上人為操作的結果，但在學理上則頗有爭議。本研究擬以直接分析法，採用期貨市場參與者慣用的技術分析，檢定技術分析是否可解釋國際原油價格的波動。本文選取美國紐約商業交易所（New York Mercantile Exchange）美國西德州中級原油（West Texas Intermediate）期貨價格為研究樣本。由於陰陽線分析法乃目前學界所使用各種技術分析法中當紅的一種，因此本文依陰陽線分析法，由過去歷史價格資料繪製出各種組成型態(candle patten)，以判斷未來價格的走勢。冀望在國際原油價格的波動與技術分析之間，尋得兩者存在著直接、具體、且合理的相關性。實證結果顯示，透過35種陰陽線形圖，來檢定國際原油市場近20年來的價格波動，可得出大部份的陰陽線形圖(32種)，對國際原油價格波動的解釋力均頗為顯著；而在不同面向樣本期間的實證結果上，亦可得到相同的結果。然而，影響國際油價波動的要因，尚有基本面與消息面因素。因此，建議未來在探討國際原油價波動的議題時，應同時探討基本面、消息面及技術面等三大因素，方可得取更具可信力的結果。 At present the international crude oil price has created the historical record to reach the highest spot, even reached as high as each barrel $63 US dollars in July，2005. Although OPEC declared that the higher oil price is resulted from the manipulation by market players in the futures market, it still has the dispute in the scientific theory or principle. This research draws up by the directly analytic method, and adopts technical analysis which habitually used in the futures market players to actually examine if the technical analysis can explain the fluctuations of the international crude oil prices well. This research selects WTI(West Texas Intermediate) on NYMEX (the American New York Mercantile Exchange) as the sample. Because the candlesticks analysis method is one of the most popular technical analyses used in the present educational world, this research drew up each kind of candle pattens by the past historical prices to judge the future prices trend according to the candlesticks analysis and hopes to find proposed, concrete, and reasonable relevant existence between the fluctuations of the international crude oil prices and technical analysis. Result demonstration, by 35 kinds of candle pattens according to the candlesticks analysis to examines the fluctuations of the international crude oil market prices for near 20 years, we get most candle pattens(32 kinds) can explain the fluctuations of the international crude oil prices well, and also obtain the same result in the different sample periods. However, the fundamental factor and the informational factor also affect the fluctuations of the international oil prices. Therefore, suggesting when discussing the subject in connection with the fluctuations of the international crude oil prices in the future, we should simultaneously discuss the three factors to make the results more authentic.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute & Department of Economics] Thesis

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