然而，影響國際油價波動的要因，尚有基本面與消息面因素。因此，建議未來在探討國際原油價波動的議題時，應同時探討基本面、消息面及技術面等三大因素，方可得取更具可信力的結果。 At present the international crude oil price has created the historical record to reach the highest spot, even reached as high as each barrel $63 US dollars in July，2005. Although OPEC declared that the higher oil price is resulted from the manipulation by market players in the futures market, it still has the dispute in the scientific theory or principle. This research draws up by the directly analytic method, and adopts technical analysis which habitually used in the futures market players to actually examine if the technical analysis can explain the fluctuations of the international crude oil prices well.
This research selects WTI(West Texas Intermediate) on NYMEX (the American New York Mercantile Exchange) as the sample. Because the candlesticks analysis method is one of the most popular technical analyses used in the present educational world, this research drew up each kind of candle pattens by the past historical prices to judge the future prices trend according to the candlesticks analysis and hopes to find proposed, concrete, and reasonable relevant existence between the fluctuations of the international crude oil prices and technical analysis.
Result demonstration, by 35 kinds of candle pattens according to the candlesticks analysis to examines the fluctuations of the international crude oil market prices for near 20 years, we get most candle pattens(32 kinds) can explain the fluctuations of the international crude oil prices well, and also obtain the same result in the different sample periods.
However, the fundamental factor and the informational factor also affect the fluctuations of the international oil prices. Therefore, suggesting when discussing the subject in connection with the fluctuations of the international crude oil prices in the future, we should simultaneously discuss the three factors to make the results more authentic.