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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/32471

    Title: 產業實質有效匯率對勞工在工作狀態間移轉的影響
    Other Titles: Industry-specific real exchange rates and job instability
    Authors: 戴郁蘋;Tai, Yu-ping
    Contributors: 淡江大學經濟學系碩士班
    林亦珍;Lin, Yi-chen
    Keywords: 產業實質有效匯率;工作狀態;multinomial logit模型;industry-specific real exchange rate;job instability;multinomial logit model
    Date: 2007
    Issue Date: 2010-01-11 02:11:56 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 影響出口品的國際競爭力和進口品在本國的競爭力的主要因素為匯率的波動。由台幣升值常伴隨經濟成長之趨緩,可見匯率的波動可能是台灣總體經濟波動的主要因素。我國多數產業以出口貿易為主,因此,匯率的波動可能間接影響勞工勞動狀態的穩定度。由於個別產業往來的主要貿易對手國不同,總體匯率指數無法精確反映各產業與主要貿易夥伴間的相對競爭力。為正確衡量個別產業於進、出口時所面臨的匯率衝擊,本文參照Goldberg(2004)年所建構的產業實質有效匯率計算方式,以各產業對我國前24大主要貿易對手國的貿易額為權數,計算1989-2003年間我國27個產業的貿易、出口以及進口產業實質有效匯率。
    關鍵詞:產業實質有效匯率、工作狀態、multinomial logit模型
    Real exchange rate fluctuations affect the competitiveness of domestic products in the world market. Since both the share of exports and the share of imports in Taiwanese GDP are higher than 60%, this paper aims to assess whether exchange rate fluctuations influence workers’ job stability. Since industries differ in their major trading partners, aggregate trade-weighted exchange rate cannot correctly reflect the currency valuation changes affecting specific industries. Using the shares of partners in the imports or exports of the industry as weights, this paper constructs three industry-specific exchange rates, i.e., the import-weighted, export-weighted, and trade-weighted exchange rates for 27 Taiwanese 2-digit industries over the period 1989-2003.
    Our results dhow that the year-to-year changes in the industry-specific real exchange rate differ substantially across industries. Moreover, the results from multinomial logit model estimation show that real appreciation is associated with an increase in the probability of becoming unemployed relative to the probability of remain employed.
    Appears in Collections:[經濟學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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