影響出口品的國際競爭力和進口品在本國的競爭力的主要因素為匯率的波動。由台幣升值常伴隨經濟成長之趨緩，可見匯率的波動可能是台灣總體經濟波動的主要因素。我國多數產業以出口貿易為主，因此，匯率的波動可能間接影響勞工勞動狀態的穩定度。由於個別產業往來的主要貿易對手國不同，總體匯率指數無法精確反映各產業與主要貿易夥伴間的相對競爭力。為正確衡量個別產業於進、出口時所面臨的匯率衝擊，本文參照Goldberg(2004)年所建構的產業實質有效匯率計算方式，以各產業對我國前24大主要貿易對手國的貿易額為權數，計算1989-2003年間我國27個產業的貿易、出口以及進口產業實質有效匯率。 計算出的27個產業的貿易加權實質有效匯率的走勢十分不同。此外，本文的實證結果顯示，台幣升值會使男性和女性勞工移轉為失業與持續就業的相對風險增加。而且女性的勞動狀態比男性的勞動狀態更容易受到匯率的影響。 本文建議央行編製以個別產業的主要貿易夥伴的貿易比例為權數的產業實質有效匯率，以利於更精確地評估匯率政策對不同產業的影響，而央行於制定匯率政策時也必須考量到勞動市場的反應。 關鍵詞：產業實質有效匯率、工作狀態、multinomial logit模型 Real exchange rate fluctuations affect the competitiveness of domestic products in the world market. Since both the share of exports and the share of imports in Taiwanese GDP are higher than 60%, this paper aims to assess whether exchange rate fluctuations influence workers’ job stability. Since industries differ in their major trading partners, aggregate trade-weighted exchange rate cannot correctly reflect the currency valuation changes affecting specific industries. Using the shares of partners in the imports or exports of the industry as weights, this paper constructs three industry-specific exchange rates, i.e., the import-weighted, export-weighted, and trade-weighted exchange rates for 27 Taiwanese 2-digit industries over the period 1989-2003. Our results dhow that the year-to-year changes in the industry-specific real exchange rate differ substantially across industries. Moreover, the results from multinomial logit model estimation show that real appreciation is associated with an increase in the probability of becoming unemployed relative to the probability of remain employed.
