台灣即將在2005年7月1日實施勞退新制，對於目前已在工作的勞工，將面臨退休金從過去適用勞基法過渡到適用勞退條例的轉換過程；而就雇主而言，其事業單位中的勞工，最終對於新舊制的整體選擇比率，和自身須提撥的兩制退休金金額的預估，有密切的相關性。因此，本研究將從雇主的角度，針對該問題進行探討。 本研究以二元選擇模型和隨機效用理論，分別建構出考慮勞工離職前後的退休金制度選擇行為模型；接著假設三個平均保留年資為7年、15年與23年的勞工樣本，配合由薪資成長率與預定利率設定出的六種情境，估算出各種情況下勞工選擇新制的比率；最後針對平均保留年資、薪資成長率、預定利率的變化，和離職率的考量與否這四項因素，對於整體勞工選擇新制比率的影響，進行分析與探討。本文期望對於面臨勞退新制衝擊的眾多中小企業雇主，在決定潛在退休金義務而須推估勞工選擇新舊制的比率時，能給予若干的參考。 In July 1, 2005, Taiwan government will reinforce the new labor pension scheme. For employees in work, they will encounter the transition process from following the Labor Standard Law to the Labor Pension Act. For employers, the total ratio of new scheme which employees in their enterprise finally choose has a great relevance to the estimation of their potential pension obligations. Therefore, this research will focus on this problem in the view of employers. In this paper, we attempt to apply the binary choice model and random utility theory to construct the choice model of Taiwan labor pension scheme under the consideration of employees’withdrawal and without this consideration individually. Then, we assume 3 types of enterprise samples with its each average retained services of 7 years, 15 years, and 23 years and use 6 scenarios consisted of different growth rate of salary and predetermined rate of return to calculate the ratio of new scheme which employees choose. Finally, we analyze the impact of changes in some factors on the ratio. These factors we discussed individually are the average retained services, growth rate of salary, predetermined rate of return, and the consideration of withdrawal rate. We hope that the result of this study can benefit employers in their preparation of pension payments.