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    Title: 不動產市場與銀行業獲利能力之分析
    Other Titles: The analysis between the the real estate market and the profit-making ability of bank industry
    Authors: 張貽德;Chang, Yi-der
    Contributors: 淡江大學保險學系保險經營碩士在職專班
    繆震宇;Maio, Chen-yu
    Keywords: 國泰房地產指數;銀行股東權益報酬率;銀行資產報酬率;Cathay Real Estate housing index;Return on Equity;Return on Assets
    Date: 2008
    Issue Date: 2010-01-11 02:00:57 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 銀行為金融機構,其在社會與經濟上之地位與一般工商企業大不相同,其經營之得失影響國家金融之穩健及社會之安定甚鉅,另一方面銀行亦是收受信用之機構,其最主要的資金來源為一般大眾之存款,若銀行經營不善,則影響層面波及全體社會的眾多投資人且將破壞整個社會的信用制度。我國的金融機構向來以承作傳統放款業務為主,其評估授信時亦多偏好以不動產擔保放款,惟此種業務方式,一旦面臨擔保品價格反轉由高至低,則容易產生大量的不良放款而損及金融機構之債權保障,導致貸款者財富崩潰及銀行呆帳增加使得銀行經營風險上升。對一些財力及體質均欠佳的銀行,處理不良債權不僅備感困難,甚而可能面臨自身倒閉或合併的危機,銀行獲利能力及風險實與不動產市場之榮枯息息相關,不容忽視。
    對銀行經營之主要業務而言,不動產市場高漲後之回跌,容易導致貸款者財富遽貶及獲利能力急降,導致資金週轉性不足,或擔保品市價相對於貸款餘額明顯較低時,將使不動產貸款之抵押物債權確保力下降而造成銀行大幅逾放增加。銀行資產品質不佳,銀行經營的安全性就會受到威脅,則其他在經營中所追求的收益性、流動性、成長性及公益性等原則將明顯喪失意義。顯然安全性是銀行經營的骨幹,唯有注重授信品質以確保債權的安全性,銀行健全經營,股東權益及保障存戶權益的理念始得以實現。
    營建業向來有火車頭工業之稱整體產值高,建築融資為銀行企業金融主力授信業務之一,建築融資案每筆貸款金額龐大,若有延滯將對銀行逾放比率產生重大影響,故銀行應考量辦理建築業融資所面臨之問題與風險,以維護銀行授信債權之安全。
    本文模型幾個重要的實證結果顯示如下:
    一、銀行獲利指標ROA與ROE受到以國泰房地產指數為不動產變數之可能成交價格指數模型顯著影響,其具顯著解釋銀行獲利之能力。
    二、以本國一般銀行建築貸款餘額為不動產變數時之模型,亦具顯著解釋銀行獲利之能力。
    三、內政部建築研究所房地產綜合指標領先與同時指標對於解釋銀行獲利無顯著解釋之能力。
    四、銀行獲利指標ROA與ROE受到本國一般銀行建築貸款餘額的顯著影響但正負相關性並不固定。
    五、銀行獲利指標ROA與ROE並不受到本國銀行消費者貸款-購置住宅貸款變數的顯著影響。
    六、銀行獲利指標ROA與ROE受到房屋建築業生產指數的顯著影響且為正向相關。
    關鍵詞:國泰房地產指數、銀行股票東權益報酬率、銀行資產報酬率等。
    Abstract:
    The bank is a sort of the financial organizations, its social and economical status is quite different from the general enterprises. Especially, its operation performance greatly influences the national finance solidity and the social stability. On the other hand, the bank is an organization with credibility and the main fund resource is the deposits of the people. If its operation consequence is not good, the majority of the investors will be terribly affected and the entire credit system of the nation will be deteriorated as well.
    The financial organizations in Taiwan mainly concentrate on the traditional loan business and the real estate mortgage is the preference for the crediting assessments. However, once the value of the collateral drops, it might lead to a large quantity of Non-performing loan as well as damage the creditor''s rights of the financial organizations. More seriously, it might result in the lenders’ bankruptcy and a rapid increase of the banks’ bad credits and the operation risk. To some banks without solid finance backgrounds, it is relatively difficult for them to handle such bad credits, even threaten them to be insolvent or merged by other banks. Therefore, the banks’ profit-making ability and its risk management are closely connected with the quality of the real estate market.
    For the banks’ main business, it easily brings about, especially in a murky real estate market, a sharp decrease of the banks’ wealth and its fund dispatch. In addition, when the value of the collateral is lower than the remaining loan amount, it might decrease the creditor''s rights for the real estate collateral and increase the banks’Non-performing loan. Under the possession of the inferior assets, the security for the banks’ continued operations will be seriously threatened, not to mention other business goals to be pursued for such as profitability, the liquidity, the growth and the public welfare. Obviously, the security is the most concerned in the position of the banks. The banks have to be very cautious about the loan quality to ensure the security of its creditor''s rights. In other words, the interests of the shareholders and depositors can be dully protected.
    The construction industry is usually regarded as the leading industry due to the highly overall productivity. Hence, the loans to the construction industry is one of the main loan business. However, as the loans are usually involved in a large amount, the overdue loans has a significant influence on the banks’ ratio of NPL. Therefore, the banks should deliberate the problems and the risk, while handling the loans to the construction industry, in order to maintain the security of the creditor''s rights.
    The real diagnoses from the models depicted in the article show the following important results:
    1.The banks’ profit benchmarks like “ROA” and ”ROE” are greatly influenced by the model of the ”30 days possible deal price index”, a Cathay Real Estate housing index, which can fully explain the banks’ profit-making ability.
    2.By means of the model of a real estate variable from the domestic banks’ loan balance to the construction industry, it can also reveal the banks’ profit-making ability.
    3.Two real estate synthesis indexes, Advanced Index and Simultaneous Index, announced by the Architecture and Building Research Institute ,Ministry of the Interior can not explan the banks’ profit-making ability.
    4.The banks’ profit benchmarks like “ROA” and ”ROE” are greatly influenced by the loan balance to the domestic construction industry, but the correlation between them is not fixed.
    5.The banks’ profit benchmarks like “ROA” and ”ROE” are not greatly influenced by the domestic consumers’ loans, a house-purchasing loan variable.
    6.The banks’ profit benchmarks like “ROA” and ”ROE” are greatly influenced by the productive index of the construction industry with the same correlation.

    Key word:Cathay Real Estate housing index, Return on Equity, Return on Assets.
    Appears in Collections:[保險學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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