本研究探討人口變遷對於勞退新制退休基金管理的影響，考慮的人口因素包含有人口結構與平均年齡，透過時間序列找出人口因素對於資產報酬率的影響，顯示台灣人口結構對其股市超額報酬會產生影響，但全球人口結構卻不會對全球性股價指數超額報酬產生影響，代表分散到全球投資能夠降低人口因素風險。本研究之各種投資策略都會受到人口因素的影響從而降低帳戶價值，且忽略人口因素會導致所得替代率高估及補貼成本被低估的結果，而開始提撥年齡越低，其差異越大。最後、政府保證有助於勞工規避人口風險而得以維持所得替代率。 This paper links international demographic risk and pension fund management of TLPS (Taiwan Labor Pension Scheme). Population structure and average age are considered in Time Series models. It shows that the population structure would influence on the Taiwan’s excess stock return but not on MSCI World Index excess return. That means global investment can reduce the risk of the population structure. All of the investment strategies employed in this paper can not eliminate the population risk. Meanwhile, replacement ratios would be overvalued and guarantee cost would be undervalued as we pass over demographics. The impact of demographic risk is decreasing with the entry age. The guarantees from government help laborers to reduce demographic risk and raise the replacement ratio.
