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    Title: 考慮延壽風險下勞退新制退休所得之模擬研究
    Other Titles: A simulation study of the replacement ratio under Taiwan proposed labor pension plan considering longevity risk
    Authors: 徐宜靖;Hsu, Yi-chin
    Contributors: 淡江大學保險學系保險經營碩士班
    林麗銖;Lin, Li-chu
    Keywords: 隨機利率;隨機生存率;所得替代率;stochastic interest rate;stochastic survival rate;income replacement ratio
    Date: 2005
    Issue Date: 2010-01-11 01:55:30 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 我國勞工退休金條例將於民國94年7月1日開辦,此制度的實施將影響廣大勞工團體。在此制度下,退休金是否能滿足退休後的生活所需,是否能達到預期的所得替代率標準,對於選擇新制的員工與未來要進入職場的新鮮人而言,顯的相當重要。故本文針對勞工退休金條例之規定,探討不同年金化方式下,員工的退休生活必須有多少的退休給付才足以維持生活目標。
    本研究考慮延壽風險與利率變動因素,以CIR(1985a)與Doug(2004)一文中生存率之轉換公式為研究基礎,分別探討下列四種情況:(一)利率與生存率採平準假設(二)利率採平準假設,生存率為隨機(三)利率為隨機,生存率採平準假設(四)利率與生存率為隨機,最後再作比較分析。
    In July 2005, the government will reinforce the new pension retirement plan. It will influence many workers. Under Taiwan proposed labor pension plan, it is important for workers who choose the new pension retirement plan and freshmen who will have a job to confirm that pension amount can meet workers'' need after retirement and achieve expected income replacement ratio. Therefore, the article wants to know the relationship between different annualized types and pension amount that meets the workers retirement life.
    The study considers longevity risk and interest rate risk. We adopt well-known term-structure interest rate model-Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985a) and survival rate formula to simulate income replacement ratio. The study discusses and analyzes fixed interest and survival rate, fixed interest rate and stochastic survival rate, stochastic interest rate and fixed survival rate, stochastic interest and survival rate, respectively.
    Appears in Collections:[保險學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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