|摘要: ||隨著2003年Goldman Sachs兩位資深分析師(Dominic Wilson)和(Roopa Purushothaman) ， 以逆向思考的模式針對“人口年輕的大型經濟體，長期會對全球造成什麼樣的影響”前提下，意外導出一份震撼全球的報告，即BRICs四個新興國家於2050年將躋身全球十大經濟體之列，七大工業國將重新洗牌，而它們將在能源、天然資源、資本三大市場扮演要角，成為全球最重要的消費市場。 |
According to a study by two senior business bankers in Goldman Sachs, Dominic Wilson and Roopa Purushothaman, entitled < Dreaming with BRICs: The path to 2050>, these nations will make a major contribution to global economic growth in coming decades.
The results are startling. If things go right, the BRICs economies together could be large than the G7 and become a member of the world biggest ten economies. Undoubtedly, they will play an important role in the energy, nature resources and capital market. That is a massive shift in the balance of world economic power. Because of the reasons I mentioned before, I have a strong desire to analyze these four emerging market. Further more, to find the invested opportunities and niche in these four markets and Taiwan.
We collect the stock price data in five stock markets of these our countries from January, 2000 to June, 2005 in order to analyze the stock market and the further investment opportunities. The approaches of this analysis are followings: Return rate, Investment and Spec risk, Jumped and Plummet of the stock price, and the Traditional average: Analysis of Variance, Average after amendment and ---------------------
We apprize the stock performance of these four countries and overlook the invested environment compares with Taiwan. Base on the relative data and the analysis we acquire the following conclusion:
Firs, by the dimension of the characteristic of stock market:
The stock performance of Brazil, Russia, Indian and China are all excelled the stock performance of Taiwan. Apropos of the investment risk, only Indian is less than Taiwan. China and India are the least two countries which have the spec risk and opportunities. To sum up, the five sock markets in BRICs compared with Taiwan stock market are easier to jump but harder to slump.
Second, by the dimension of the traditional average: Analysis of Variance:
To take the Taiwan stock market as a basis, we find a results that the conclusion will be the same whatever we use the monthly return rate average or the term return rate average as our measurement basis. It all indicates that the investment environment in Indian is better than that in Taiwan.
Third, by the Dimension of the Avarage after amended:
We find that the stock performance of Brazil, Russia, Indian and China are all better than that of Taiwan. It also denotes that the value of investment is also superior to that in Taiwan.