石油乃無法再生之資源，又屬於寡占事業集中在少數國家。船隻在海上航行仰賴石油甚深，自2003年以來，石油的漲幅至2006年已超過二倍以上，造成海運相關成本紛紛上漲。故本研究使用回歸分析來建立模型，探討近年來的世界石油價格與海運運價之間的關係及影響。 油價調漲對於海運運價的影響，必須同時考量市場需求及海運業者所提供的船艙數量，才能調整到合理的海運運價。因此不可一味只是按照市場石油價格來調整運價，如何精確掌握市場需求進而審慎調整船隻艙位數量，才是船公司保持本身應有利潤的解決方法。 Oil is not revival power sources and is an oligopoly market belonged to few country. The vessels sailing on the sea count on oil deeply, but since 2003 oil price keep increasing sharply and now the price is even over 2 times of 2003 level. It has caused ocean freight related costs increasing as well. This thesis use regression analysis to build the models for studying the relation and effect between oil world price and ocean freight rate. As for the effect between oil price adjustment and ocean freight rate, we have to consider the market demand and the vessel space carrier (shipping company and freight forwarder) provided, so that the ocean freight rate could be adjusted to the reasonable level. Thus, the ocean freight rate cannot just follow oil world price up and down. The precise control on market demand and the efficient allotment of vessel and space are the best solutions for the shipping company to keep deserved profit.
