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    題名: 運用財務比率分析及公司治理指標於企業財務危機之研究
    其他題名: A study of company financial distress warning model-constructing with financial ratios and corporate governance factors
    作者: 蔡鳳娟;Tsai, Feng-chuan
    貢獻者: 淡江大學國際貿易學系國際企業學碩士在職專班
    曾義明;Tseng, Yi-ming
    關鍵詞: 企業財務危機;財務比率分析;公司治理;Financial Distress Warning Model;Financial Ratios;Corporate Governance
    日期: 2006
    上傳時間: 2010-01-11 01:44:29 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 在研究企業財務危機預警模型之學術領域裡,傳統上多以財務比率來建構企業財務預警模型,惟僅考慮財務比率變數不僅無法準確預測出企業財務危機事件,更忽略了企業管理中「人治」的非財務因素。因此本研究除了考慮財務因素之外,另外加入公司治理因素以建構「完整性的企業財務危機預警模式」,提供一個兼顧企業營運績效與公司內部監理因素的企業財務預警模式。
    本文根據1999年至2005年間90家台灣股票上市或上櫃公司為研究樣本,採用「1:2 之配對樣本法」,其中30家為曾變更交易為全額交割、股票停止買賣或下市的財務危機公司,另外60家則為財務正常公司。而研究變數則選取企業發生財務危機前三年的9項財務比率及6項公司治理因素為解釋變數,實證方法上則採用羅吉斯迴歸模型進行分析。
    研究結果顯示:
    (一)負債比率、總資產週轉率、現金流量比率、更新財務預測、發行可轉換公司債及董監持股質押比率等六項變數與財務危機的發生呈顯著相關,表示財務危機事件的發生與企業採高財務槓桿的舉債方式、公司經營層不當運用募集的資金以及董監事高設質的財務風險有相當的關聯性。
    (二)從實證結果分析,危機發生前三年的危機企業財務預測型態下所得到的預測準確率介於50%~86.67%,加入公司治理因素後之危機企業預測準確率則提升至53.33%~90%,整體研究期間的預測準確率從66.67%提高至78.89%,顯示以財務比率及公司治理因素建構的完整性危機預警模型,較單以財務比率因素建構的預警模型的預測準確率為佳,也較能反應企業整體的營運優劣。
    In traditional, most of the researches in Business Financial Crisis Prediction Model usually construct in financial ratios. But it cannot projection the financial crisis incidents correctly, and may disregard the factor of non-financial, eg. Govern by Human. In the study, therefore, to analysis both factors of financial and corporate governance to compose the integrity Financial Crisis Prediction Model”, and provide the model which to give consideration to business operation performance and inside supervise management.
    The study includes ninety in Taiwan’s Industries of Listed and OTC Firms from 1999 to 2005. It contains 30 companies which are full settling, stop order or delisting, and contrast with the other 60 normal firms. From the viewpoint of variable of financial distress predictive model, nine financial ratios before firms get financial crisis in latest three years are selected in this study. Moreover, six of corporate governance factors are also included in the study. This paper employs the performance of the Logistic model in predicting variables.
    The results of this research as below:
    1.The empirical result indicated that the 6 financial variables of Debt-to-equity ratio, Total asset turnover, Cash flow from operating Ratio, financial forecast updating, convertible bonds offering, Hypothecation ratio of directors, supervisor, manager and stockholder are significantly correlated with the cause of financial crisis. It shows that most of firms are cross-holding companies and the main reasons of financial crisis are over usage of financial leverage, exhausted working capital, and ineffective turnover.
    2.Based on our empirical results, we find that the percentages of correctly classified firm in latest 3 years the crisis listed firms is 50%-87%, respectively. And incorporating Corporate Governance indicators helps to increase predictability (53%-90%). In addition, the entirety period boosts the predictability from 67% to 78%. It shows using both of financial ratios and corporate governance indicators, so that we could get the proposed model does render useful in predicting a crisis status through existing financial data.
    顯示於類別:[國際企業學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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