臺灣地區出口與經濟成長 : 1970-1997

淡江大學機構典藏 > 商管學院 > 國際企業學系暨研究所 > 學位論文 > Item 987654321/32132

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题名:	臺灣地區出口與經濟成長 : 1970-1997
其它题名:	Exports and economic growth in Taiwan : 1970-1997 台灣地區出口與經濟成長 : 1970-1997
作者:	劉龍嫦;Liu, Lung-chang
贡献者:	淡江大學國際貿易學系國際企業學碩士班賈昭南;Chia, Chao-nan
关键词:	出口;經濟成長;普通最小平方法;二階段最小平方法;三階段最小平方法;export;economic growth;ordinary least squares;two-stage least squares methods;three-stage least squares methods
日期:	2005
上传时间:	2010-01-11 01:44:07 (UTC+8)
摘要:	自從1950年代以來，出口帶動經濟成長的經濟發展策略，似乎已經成為經濟學的定論，許多實證研究亦證實此一結論。然而，1980年代以來多個新興工業化經濟體興起，加上學術界對於不完全競爭貿易理論的發展，在策略性貿易的主題下，似乎推翻了過去以自由貿易為背景下，出口帶動經濟發展的結論。實證經濟學再度利用新發展的計量經濟方法，探索出口對經濟成長影響的議題。臺灣的經濟成就向來被歸功於出口擴張政策的成功。過去對於臺灣出口與經濟成長關係的研究，大都探討因果關係，而且結論也不一致，本文延續此一觀念，不再探討兩者之因果關係，而係檢視出口對經濟成長的貢獻。本文以臺灣地區的經濟發展為中心，利用1970年到1997年這一段期間的統計資料，實證分析出口對臺灣經濟成長的貢獻。利用年資料估計一組聯立方程式模型，包括增列出口的擴大國民總生產函數、出口需求函數以及出口供給函數中的各參數值。為確實掌握各種估計方法的差異，分別採用普通最小平方法、二階段最小平方法以及三階段最小平方法，對實證模型的三個方程式進行統計估計。研究結果發現：(一)出口額變動率與總要素生產力成長率二項對經濟成長率的貢獻非常顯著，此一結果符合一般理論與實務上的預期；(二)勞工就業水準與資本形成變動率為促進經濟成長的第三重要原動力，惟三種方法所估得的結果並不一致；(三)比較出口需求與出口供給的兩個所得彈性值，國外所得彈性係數皆大於國內所得彈性係數，顯示臺灣出口商品對於世界經濟景氣的依賴度大於國內的經濟活動，證實臺灣經濟易受國外景氣變動之影響。 The export-economic growth relationship has been dealt with in several empirical studies concerning cross-section and time series data. The 1970’s have witnessed an emerging consensus in favor of export promotion. Analysis in depth of individual country experience has provided extensive support for export promotion as an effective development strategy. However, such an advocacy for export oriented policies has not been immune from criticism. Recently it has been argued that there are reasons for export pessimism. The slowing down of economic activities in the industrialized countries implies that the trade engine is running out of fuel. New trade theory has also contributed to the theoretical relationship between exports and growth regarding effects on technical efficiency. In models of imperfect competition and increasing returns to scale, this outcome is ambiguous. The purpose of this paper has been to examine the relationship between exports performance and economic growth in Taiwan using time series data for the period 1970-97. Unlike other studies on this topic the present paper has examined the relationship in a simultaneous equation framework. Following Khan and Saqib (1993) we specify an export augmented Cobb-Douglas production function, export demand and export supply functions simultaneously. The estimation techniques are ordinary least squares (OLS), two-stage least squares methods (2SLS) and three-stage least squares methods (3SLS). Similar to previous studies, this paper finds that the growth rate of exports and GDP growth rate are significantly and positively correlated. It also shows that a strong association between growth rate of total factor productivities and GDP growth rate. The foreign income elasticity of demand for exports is found to be much higher compared with the domestic income elasticity of supply for exports. This finding indicates that Taiwan’s exports are more dependent on world rather than on domestic economic activity.
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