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    jsp.display-item.identifier=請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/32121


    题名: 「中國─東協」成立自由貿易區之自由化與產業競爭之探討
    其它题名: 中國─東協成立自由貿易區之自由化與產業競爭之探討
    The research of liberalization and industries' competence of the free trade area's formulation between China and ASEAN
    作者: 黎盛杲;Li, Sheng-kao
    贡献者: 淡江大學國際貿易學系國際企業學碩士班
    林志鴻;Lin, Jyh-horng
    关键词: 經濟整合理論;區域貿易協定;東協;the Theory of Economic Integration;Regional Trade Arrangements;ASEAN
    日期: 2005
    上传时间: 2010-01-11 01:43:22 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 面對全球市場的劇烈競爭,區域經濟整合業已成為當前經濟發展的主流。東南亞國協會員國與中國大陸於2004年11月29日在寮國首都永珍共同簽署「東協與中國大陸全面經濟合作自由貿易協議」,簡稱「東協加一」協定,預計於2010年,該自由貿易區,將會和北美自由貿易區和歐洲經濟聯盟形成三足鼎立的全球三大經濟區塊,因而中國-東協自由貿易區的經濟實力不容忽視。故此一區域內貿易協定因產品及勞務之自由流通及區域關稅及非關稅調降或免除,對貿易方向與利益衝擊,及此一衝擊對產業競爭力造成的影響成為本文探討的重點。首先,本論文將以區域經濟整合趨勢切入,輔以文獻分析與綜合歸納法,探討區域自由貿易協定,並從中國與東協國家的內外經濟環境來分析成立自由貿易區對產業可能造成的影響。之後,再應用國際貿易的相關理論,輔以一些次級統計資料,尋找出目前階段對區域內哪些產業有利或不利。
    主要研究結果如下:1. 中國過去因受到相對高度保護,自由化後,就關稅貿易障礙取消而言,東協六國受惠程度大於中國。2. 關稅貿易障礙取消對區域內產業的影響:東協六國對中國的出口成長率呈現大幅增加,特別是稻米及糖兩項產品。至於對經濟產出成長率的影響,最明顯的是在蔬菜油和糖兩項產品。然而對物價上漲率明顯的影響,有稻米及糖兩項產品,而貿易量則是蔬菜油呈現明顯的增加。 3. 非關稅貿易障礙取消,影響最大的是租地價格,其他的總體變數則差異不大,就東協六國的福利而言,大部分的貿易利益來自中國的自由貿易之國際分工。 4. 就非關稅貿易障礙取消對中國的比較劣勢產業,例如:稻米、金屬製品、皮草製品、森林製品,將呈現明顯的衝擊,而東協六國的比較劣勢產業,例如:飲料及煙草也將會呈現明顯的影響。 5.貿易創造效果:1)兩區域形成自由貿易區之前,中國向成本最低的非會員國韓國及台灣進口生皮及皮草、人造纖維絲、工業用紡織品、針織品。形成自由貿易區之後,由於東協四國(印尼、馬來西亞、菲律賓及泰國)在中國市場的比較優勢和韓國台灣不同,因而對中國而言,並不會轉向採行自由貿易相對高成本的東協四國進口,故貿易轉向效果不存在;2)由於中國向東協國家徵課的進口關稅稅率,高於東協對中國徵課的進口關稅;同時,東協四國對中國最具競爭力之出口類別項目中,皆屬相對高關稅的產品,在此情狀下,中國的這些進口競爭替代部門,會因自由貿易區的形成,而進口相對便宜的產品,而使其大幅減少生產,使中國不具效率的生產因而明顯減少,因而提昇其福利。 6. 關稅自由化對貿易流量的影響:由於東協四國對中國最具競爭力之出口類別項目大部分是屬於高關稅稅率的產品,因而東協國家對中國因自由化的出口貿易流量(或是中國對東協因自由化的進口貿易流量)高達55.3%,這種相對高的百分比,足以說明自由貿易效果的明顯創造。 7. 中國取消非關稅貿易障礙對進口東亞主要國家產品的影響:中國的非關稅貿易障礙措施有三,分別是;進口許可證、進口許可證與配額、和權利金。就全面性的非關稅貿易障礙取消而言,受惠最大的韓國和泰國,由於其並非中國最大的競爭對手,其兩國的競爭力提昇,相互競爭程度並不會增加,但是對中國的競爭替代程度,卻呈現大幅的競爭提昇,影響的是菲律賓及印尼。
    Encounter with global violent competition, regional economic integration has became the mainstream of current economic development. In November 29, 2004 ASEAN and China cosigned Agreement on Trade in Goods of the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Co-operation in Laos’Vientiane, which has been called as ASEAN+1or ACFTA, that Free Trade Area (FTA) is expected to be an important economic area in 2010, and it will vie for NAFTA and EU in a global three way tie. That’s the reason why we can’t neglect the economic strength of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. Those free trades of goods and services, regional tariff’s and non-tariff ‘s degression or elimination of the Regional Trade Arrangements’ impacts on trading profits and industries’ competences will be the topic of this essay. First, this essay will mention about the trend of regional economic integration with content analysis method and induction to discuss Free Trade Agreement, and then analysis that what industrial impacts will be caused of the domestic and international economic environment of China and ASEAN. Then I will apply theories related to international trade and accompany with some secondary statistic data to understand that which industry in that region can take advantage or disadvantage because of the status quo.
    The main study results are as follows: 1.Since China government imposed trade barriers before, ASEAN6 will beneficial more than China after trade liberalization and the cancellation of tariff barriers. 2.Those impacts on industries in the area for the cancellation of tariff barriers: The exporting growth rate of ASEAN6 to China rises a lot, especially on rice and sugar. As to those impacts on growth rate of industrial output obviously reflects on vegetable oil and sugar. However the obviously impacts on price inflation rate includes rice and sugar, and the trade quantity significant increases in vegetable oil. 3.The cancellation of non-tariff’s barriers influences the prices of land rent most but has small differences on other macro variances. As to the welfare of ASEAN6, most of the trade profits comes from free trade’s international division of labor in China. 4.Non-tariff’s barriers cancellation will influence China’s weak industries, just like rice, metal products, fur products and forest products, and the weak industries of ASEAN also be significantly influenced e.g. drinks and tobaccos. 5. Trade creates effects:(1) before the formulation of Free Trade Area between two areas, China imported peltry, fur, rayon, polyester and knitting products from the lowest price nonmember countries like Korea and Taiwan. After the formulation of Free Trade Area, because ASEAN4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippe and Thailand) have different competitive advantages from Korean and Taiwan in China market, so China will not transfer its orders to ASEAN4 for their high price so there is no trade transferring effects; (2) Since China imposed higher import tariff than ASEAN, and the most competitive goods of ASEAN4 are sorted as high tariff terms. In such a situation, China’s substitute departments to import will eliminate its production and import cheaper products, make China’s inefficient production eliminate in a great number, and results in improving its welfare. 6.Those impacts on trade quantity cause of tariff liberalization: Since most competitive products of ASEAN4 are sorted as high tariff items, the export trade flow rate (or the import flow rate of China to ASEAN) rise up to 55.3%, this relative high percentage is enough to presents those significant effects of free trade. 7.Those main impacts of the cancellation of China’s non-tariff’s barriers on importing East Asia’s main countries’ products: There were three kinds of China’s non-tariff’s barriers, import permit, import permit and quota and privilege payment. As to the comprehensive non-tariff’s barriers, Korean and Thailand are the most beneficial countries, since they are not the strongest competitive enemy of China; the competence increasing of them will not step up the competitive situation, but the substitute level to China increases a lot and Philippe and Indonesia will be influenced.
    显示于类别:[國際企業學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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