本文使用台灣地區1991年至2005年期間的季資料，利用probit模型實證探討匯率波動性與國際金融整合程度兩項因素對於台灣地區資本淨流量之影響。結果如下：匯率波動性對於資本淨流量的影響，顯示出當匯率波動性較大時，金融不穩定性的機率會下降；而國際金融整合程度對於資本淨流量的影響，顯示出當國際金融整合程度愈高時，台灣地區的金融不穩定性的機率會提高。此外，以上兩個變數交叉項對資本淨流量為正向的關係，顯示匯率波動性可以抵銷國際金融整合程度的影響。但就台灣地區資料來看，當前的國際金融整合程度已經高到難以藉由浮動匯率制度予以抵銷，必須另謀他策。 This article applies a probit model to empirically estimate the effects of exchange rate fluctuations and international financial integration degree on the net capital flow in Taiwan using quaterly data covering the period from 1991 to 2005.Our finding proved that exchange rate fluctuations have generated negative effects to the net capital flow, indicating that financial instability might be eliminated by allowing fluctuations in foreign exchange rate. International financial integration can significantly generate adverse effect to financial stability. Finally, the interaction effect of the two variables is used to calculate the threshold that the extent to which the adverse effect of financial integration being eliminated by exchange rate fluctuation. Our data have shown that current level of international financial integration is too high to be eliminated by the exchange rate fluctuation.
